The last time there was three-peat in the men’s event at Skate America, Nathan Chen wasn’t even alive yet. For that, you’ll have to go back to Todd Eldredge back when he won four in a row from 1994 to 1997. Chen comes into this event as the heavy favorite, but that doesn’t mean that it’s smooth sailing - these programs are not easy, and he will need to stay generally consistent to capture that third title.
Skate America predictions
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GOLD Nathan Chen USA - His Japan Open debut two weeks ago was very promising, hitting four quads in a season debut and scoring almost 190 for a free skate that had two point-draining errors in it. It certainly bodes well for his chances at a third Skate America title this week. It’s less about the win this week and more about what his strategy is for this season. He’s spent the past two doing a gradual build-up from the start to the finish, and so you will probably not see full technical prowess from Chen here. It’ll be about getting used to his new programs and figuring out a way to take all the intricacy from his choreographers and not chucking it in favor of the jumps.
SILVER Dmitri Aliev RUS - We are seeing signs that the Aliev we saw all kinds of potential in at the Olympics two seasons ago might be returning after a really trying season last year. The fact that he is putting out his quad lutz in competition already this season shows that he’s got more confidence in his numbers than he did this time last year. He is, components-wise, one of the best in the world, and that will be of good use this week as he looks for his first Grand Prix medal.
BRONZE Junhwan Cha KOR - This has already been a season of self-challenge for Cha. He’s pushing himself artistically and he’s also trying to put himself on par with some of the best jumpers in the world. At Autumn Classic last month, he brought in a second quad in his short and added his new quad flip to the free. It means that his programs are riskier than ever, but better make those adjustments now and early, especially when he and his team are thinking long term.
4. Jason Brown USA - It was not an auspicious start to Brown’s season. On his way to Champs Camp over the summer, he was in a car accident that gave him a concussion that he has been dealing with since and had to pull out of Nebelhorn Trophy during the recovery. He’s not planning on putting out 100% of his technical content this week, but with the risk-takers in this field, he could very well sneak in there for a medal if he can put out clean programs. The question is - how close or far from 100% will Brown be this week?
5. Boyang Jin CHN - It’s been a bit of a mystery with Jin over the past two seasons. Ever since he had that disastrous Worlds that left him in 19th place in 2018, he’s been up and down with his consistency in competition. It continues onto this season so far; after a fantastic debut at Lombardia Trophy, he took a dip a couple weeks later at Shanghai Trophy. The 30-point differential between his short at Lombardia and his short in Shanghai tells the tale. Which skater will we get this week?
6. Keegan Messing CAN - A lot of good thoughts will be going to Messing this week, less than a month after his brother passed away in a motorcycle accident. And just a few days before that, Messing took bronze at Autumn Classic in his season debut. There will be a lot of unknowns coming into Skate America for Messing, but the crowd’s support may be exactly what he needs to find his way through this competition.
7. Alex Krasnozhon USA - In his fourth-place finish at US Classic, Krasnozhon finally hit his first quad jump in competition. That will certainly propel his confidence into Skate America, where he will be looking to challenge some of the best in the world.
8. Michal Brezina CZE - Skating fans will remember that Skate America was where the Breznaissance started last season. He won his first Grand Prix medal in four years and then went on to qualify for the Grand Prix Final for the first time in seven years. It was a remarkable season for a guy who has been trying to recapture his consistency. He started his season in Shanghai Trophy with a fourth-place finish behind Jin.
9. Koshiro Shimada JPN - Shimada took silver at Nebelhorn earlier in the season, and will be looking to carry some of that momentum to his first senior Grand Prix event. Under coach Stephane Lambiel, he continues to grow into an elegant skater. The quad toe will be key to his success this week.
10. Roman Savosin RUS - The World junior silver medalist makes his Grand Prix debut this week. He’s got some big jumps but has been inconsistent in the past.
11. Kazuki Tomono JPN - Seventh at Lombardia Trophy, Tomono is starting his season taking chances - adding a quad toe to both of his programs. He knows that, with Keiji Tanaka and Sota Yamamoto squarely in the mix, the third spot on the Japanese team will not be easy to get. The risk-taking may very well pay off in a couple of months, but it may take some growing pains to get there.
12. Alexei Bychenko ISR - Since finishing fourth at Worlds in 2018, Bychenko hasn’t been the same skater, with an injury during the post-Olympic off-season that took him a good bit of time to recover from. He’s still trying to regain his consistency. He was third at Nebelhorn earlier this season.