Internationaux de France this week will be less about whether a Russian will win the ladies’ event, but rather which Russian will win it. It will be the matchup between the Olympic champion and her teammate making her senior Grand Prix debut. It really is a much-anticipated showdown, because it will provide a preview of what to potentially expect at the Russian Championships.
Internationaux de France predictions
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GOLD Alena Kostornaia RUS - The most complete skater in ladies’ skating, Kostornaia has the unenviable task of going up against the Olympic champion, who also happens to be her training mate. But what Kostornaia has that Zagitova doesn’t have is the triple axel, and we saw it in fine form earlier this season at Finlandia Trophy, when she became the 10th woman to land a triple axel internationally. Considering how good it looked there in the free skate, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if she decided to add it to her short program. But it’s important to stress that winning here would absolutely still be an upset - but it’s an upset that looks to be possible.
SILVER Alina Zagitova RUS - It was a very impressive opener for Zagitova at Japan Open. Whereas last season at this time, she was struggling under what felt like the immense pressure of expectations, she looked free at Japan Open, skating like she was during that Olympic season. Without anything more difficult than a triple lutz, she faces an uphill climb in the technical department relative to Kostornaia. And unlike in many cases, she doesn’t have the advantage in components that she usually does. She will need to be clean or near clean to have a chance at winning this week.
BRONZE Kaori Sakamoto JPN - Off the podium at Skate America, Sakamoto has been dealing with confidence issues so far this season. She’s been making mistakes in practice that have thrown her off in competition. With another two weeks of training under her belt, it’s altogether likely that she will come in with a stronger mental attitude here - she’s not that far from strongest, and it only takes a couple of more consistent practices for her to have that fearless mindset that she’s had the past two seasons.
4. Mariah Bell USA - Last season was a step up for Bell, who finished in the top 10 at Worlds for the first time in three tries. She’s taking some chances this season, especially in the short program with an Adam Rippon-Britney Spears creation, hoping to differentiate herself from her competitors and up her components mark. Her step up last season came as a result of improved consistency, and we saw that continue at Nebelhorn Trophy earlier this season, where she took gold. She’s got an outside shot at the podium here.
5. Wakaba Higuchi JPN - We saw shades of the vintage World silver medalist at Skate America, where she finished in the top three in the short program. But her free skate was a different story there. If she can find her rhythm in both programs again, she’s got a shot at the podium. But given that she’s still trying to find her footing after injury, it might be a similar story.
6. Starr Andrews USA - Andrews has shown some promise in the Challenger events this season. She comes into this season much more prepared than she was this time last season, and she can put down some solid skating, though with less difficulty than many others in this field.
7. Yuna Shiraiwa JPN - Shiraiwa is a bit of an unknown this week - she fell ill earlier in the season and finished seventh at Kinki Regionals and withdrew from US Classic. At her best, she is very much top five material, but her condition and recovery from her illness will determine how she does here.
UPDATE: Laurine Lecavelier withdrew with injury on 31 October
8. Laurine Lecavelier FRA - This annual head-to-head matchup between Lecavelier and Meite is always crucial, because it’s the first time they get a chance to compete against each other internationally this season. At French Masters, Lecavelier got the upper hand.
9. Mae Berenice Meite FRA - Meite has been dealing with another injury that has kept her from full practice capacity early in the season. She seems to be pain-free again, but will she be able to pull two strong programs off here?
10. Nicole Schott GER - Bronze at Nebelhorn Trophy, Schott had a solid opening to her season. This will be her second appearance at Internationaux de France.
11. Maria Sotskova RUS - It hasn’t been the same since the Olympic season, where she was eighth at both the Olympics and Worlds. Sotskova has been balancing school with skating, and hasn’t found much consistency over the past year. She was most recently eighth at Denis Ten Memorial.
12. Lea Serna FRA - The two-time French bronze medalist makes her second appearance at Internationaux de France. She took third at French Masters earlier this season behind Lecavelier and Meite.