Men (qualifiers and substitutes)
Q1. Yuzuru Hanyu JPN - 30 (CAN 15, JPN 15)
Q2. Nathan Chen USA - 30 (USA 15, FRA 15)
Q3. Alexander Samarin RUS - 28 (FRA 13, RUS 15)
Q4. Dmitri Aliev RUS - 24 (USA 11, RUS 13)
Q5. Kevin Aymoz FRA - 24 (FRA 11, JPN 13)
Q6. Boyang Jin CHN - 20 (USA 5, CHN 15)
S1. Nam Nguyen CAN - 20 (CAN 13, RUS 7)
S2. Jason Brown USA - 20 (USA 13, JPN 7)
S3. Keiji Tanaka JPN - 18 (CAN 11, CHN 7)
Ladies (qualifiers and substitutes)
Q1. Alena Kostornaia RUS - 30 (FRA 15, JPN 15)
Q2. Alexandra Trusova RUS - 30 (CAN 15, RUS 15
Q3. Anna Shcherbakova RUS - 30 (USA 15, CHN 15)
Q4. Rika Kihira JPN - 26 (CAN 13, JPN 13)
Q5. Alina Zagitova RUS - 24 (FRA 13, JPN 11)
Q6. Bradie Tennell USA - 22 (USA 13, CAN 9)
S1. Satoko Miyahara JPN - 22 (CHN 13, RUS 9)
S2. Mariah Bell USA - 22 (FRA 11, RUS 11)
S3. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS - 22 (USA 11, CHN 11)
Pairs (qualifiers and substitutes)
Q1. Wenjing Sui/Cong Han CHN - 30 (CHN 15, JPN 15)
Q2. Aleksandra Boikova/Dmitrii Kozlovskii RUS - 30 (CAN 15, RUS 15)
Q3. Cheng Peng/Yang Jin CHN - 28 (USA 15, CHN 13)
Q4. Anastasia Mishina/Aleksandr Galliamov RUS - 26 (FRA 15, JPN 11)
Q5. Kirsten Moore-Towers/Michael Marinaro CAN - 26 (CAN 13, JPN 13)
Q6. Daria Pavliuchenko/Denis Khodykin RUS - 26 (USA 13, FRA 13)
S1. Evgenia Tarasova/Vladimir Morozov RUS - 24 (CAN 11, RUS 13)
S2. Haven Denney/Brandon Frazier USA - 22 (USA 11, FRA 11)
S3. Liubov Ilyushechkina/Charlie Bilodeau CAN - 18 (CAN 7, CHN 11)
Ice dance (qualifiers and substitutes)
Q1. Gabriella Papadakis/Guillaume Cizeron FRA - 30 (FRA 15, JPN 15)
Q2. Victoria Sinitsina/Nikita Katsalapov RUS - 30 (CHN 15, RUS 15)
Q3. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier CAN - 28 (CAN 15, RUS 13)
Q4. Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue USA - 28 (USA 15, CAN 13)
Q5. Alexandra Stepanova/Ivan Bukin RUS - 26 (USA 13, JPN 13)
Q6. Madison Chock/Evan Bates USA - 26 (FRA 13, CHN 13)
S1. Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri ITA - 22 (FRA 11, JPN 11)
S2. Laurence Fournier Beaudry/Nikolaj Sorensen CAN - 22 (USA 11, CHN 11)
S3. Lilah Fear/Lewis Gibson GBR - 20 (CAN 11, JPN 9)
—
With one Grand Prix left to go, the standings for the 2019-20 Grand Prix series and the qualification outlook for the Final are getting much clearer. Nevertheless, only 10 of the 24 spots have been secured, with many others hanging in the balance. Here’s a look at some of the possibilities coming up at NHK Trophy.
LADIES
Top 6 Ladies (after Rostelecom Cup) + skaters left at NHK Trophy
Q1. Alexandra Trusova RUS - 30 (CAN 15, RUS 15)
Q2. Anna Shcherbakova RUS - 30 (USA 15, CHN 15)
3. Bradie Tennell USA - 22 (USA 13, CAN 9)
4. Satoko Miyahara JPN - 22 (CHN 13, RUS 9)
5. Mariah Bell USA - 22 (FRA 11, RUS 11)
6. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS - 22 (USA 11, CHN 11)
—
Still with a shot at the Final
Alena Kostornaia RUS - 15 (FRA 15, JPN ??)
Rika Kihira JPN - 13 (CAN 13, JPN ??)
Alina Zagitova RUS - 13 (FRA 13, JPN ??)
Sofia Samodurova RUS - 7 (CHN 7, JPN ??)
Eunsoo Lim KOR - 7 (USA 7, JPN ??)
Starr Andrews USA - 7 (FRA 7, JPN ??)
VERY HIGH: Alena Kostornaia, Rika Kihira, Alina Zagitova, Bradie Tennell
Unless something really strange happens, these are the last four who will make the Final. Kostornaia, Kihira, and Zagitova are heavy, heavy favorites to be on the podium, and that’s all they will need (in fact, Kostornaia would only need to finish fifth or higher). Tennell, because of where she sits right now in the standings, will take that last spot to the Final.
LOW: Sakoto Miyahara
Miyahara still has a small shot at the Final, but because she lost the total score tiebreak to Tennell last week, she will need Kostornaia to finish sixth or lower, or Kihira or Zagitova to finish fifth or lower (or fourth and lose the tiebreak).
LITTLE/NO CHANCE: Mariah Bell, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva, Sofia Samodurova, Eunsoo Lim, Starr Andrews
MEN
Top 6 Men (after Rostelecom Cup) + skaters left at NHK Trophy
Q1. Nathan Chen USA - 30 (USA 15, FRA 15)
Q2. Alexander Samarin RUS - 28 (FRA 13, RUS 15)
3. Dmitri Aliev RUS - 24 (USA 11, RUS 13)
4. Boyang Jin CHN - 20 (USA 5, CHN 15)
5. Nam Nguyen CAN - 20 (CAN 13, RUS 7)
6. Keiji Tanaka JPN - 18 (CAN 11, CHN 7)
—
Still with a shot at the Final
Yuzuru Hanyu JPN - 15 (CAN 15, JPN ??)
Jason Brown USA - 13 (USA 13, JPN ??)
Kevin Aymoz FRA - 11 (FRA 11, JPN ??)
Makar Ignatov RUS - 11 (RUS 11, JPN ??)
Tomoki Hiwatashi USA - 7 (FRA 7, JPN ??)
Sergei Voronov RUS - 5 (FRA 5, JPN ??)
Alexei Bychenko ISR - 4 (USA 4, JPN ??)
VERY HIGH: Yuzuru Hanyu, Dmitri Aliev
Hanyu is favored to run away with NHK Trophy, which will get him in. In fact, basically anything above fifth here will guarantee it. Aliev, after taking silver last week at Rostelecom, has set himself up very well, with only unlikely scenarios of NHK Trophy standings that would push him out of that Final. To give you an idea of how unlikely, the most likely unlikely scenario that pushes him off the Final would be Aymoz gold, Ignatov silver with >260.57 for the tiebreak, Brown bronze with >258.35 for the tiebreak, and Hanyu fourth.
MEDIUM/HIGH: Jason Brown
Finishing with a medal at NHK will get Brown back into the Final for the second time in his career. Unless we have an epic upset where Hanyu finishes below an Aymoz-Ignatov-Brown podium AND Brown gets bronze and doesn’t get a high enough score to break the tie between him and Aliev, the medal is a guaranteed berth into the Final. If he goes fourth, however, then things start looking a bit different - he will still have a decent shot (e.g., Hanyu gold, Aymoz silver, Ignatov bronze, Brown fourth).
MEDIUM: Kevin Aymoz
The first thing Aymoz needs to do here to get into the Final is finish above Ignatov, the second is get a medal.
LOW/MEDIUM: Makar Ignatov
The first thing Ignatov needs to do here to get into the Final is finish above Aymoz, the second is get a medal. Note the similarities to Aymoz here, but Aymoz has the higher ceiling.
LOW: Boyang Jin
Thanks to his win at Cup of China, this is not an impossible feat, but it will require a lot of very unexpected finishes to happen. Jin beats anyone who ends up finishing with 20 points, except for Hanyu and Voronov, both of whom would have to have a win and a sixth place, and would then need to win the tiebreak. In the most probable scenario, it would require both Aymoz and Ignatov to finish off the podium.
LITTLE/NO CHANCE: Nam Nguyen, Keiji Tanaka, Tomoki Hiwatashi, Sergei Voronov, Alexei Bychenko
PAIRS
Top 6 Pairs (after Rostelecom Cup) + skaters left at NHK Trophy
Q1. Boikova/Kozlovskii RUS - 30 (CAN 15, RUS 15)
Q2. Peng/Jin CHN - 28 (USA 15, CHN 13)
Q3. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin RUS - 26 (USA 13, FRA 13)
4. Tarasova/Morozov RUS - 24 (CAN 11, RUS 13)
5. Denney/Frazier USA - 22 (USA 11, FRA 11)
6. Ilyushechkina/Bilodeau CAN - 18 (CAN 7, CHN 11)
—
Still with a shot at the Final
Sui/Han CHN - 15 (CHN 15, JPN ??)
Mishina/Galliamov RUS - 15 (FRA 15, JPN ??)
Moore-Towers/Marinaro CAN - 13 (CAN 13, JPN ??)
Knierim/Knierim USA - 9 (CAN 9, JPN ??)
Della Monica/Guarise - 9 (CHN 9, JPN ??)
Kayne/O’Shea USA - 5 (CHN 5, JPN ??)
VERY HIGH: Sui/Han, Mishina/Galliamov
Both of them come in with a win, and both of them need fourth or higher to guarantee themselves a spot. Not much more to say about that.
MEDIUM: Tarasova/Morozov, Moore-Towers/Marinaro
This is likely going to be the fight of the pairs race for the Final. Tarasova/Morozov have already made their mark, so it’s up to Moore-Towers/Marinaro to chase. For Moore-Towers/Marinaro, they are currently favored for silver or bronze - if they get silver, they are in. If they get bronze, they they will need to score 210.58 to break the tie between them and Tarasova/Morozov. MT/M got 208.49 at Skate Canada.
VERY LOW: Knierim/Knierim, Della Monica/Guarise
Both with a fourth-place finish coming in, they will need to win and have other things go in their favor to get to the Final.
LITTLE/NO CHANCE: Denney/Frazier, Ilyushechkina/Bilodeau, Kayne/O’Shea
DANCE
Top 6 Dance (after Rostelecom Cup) + skaters left at NHK Trophy
Q1. Sinitsina/Katsalapov RUS - 30 (CHN 15, RUS 15)
Q2. Gilles/Poirier CAN - 28 (CAN 15, RUS 13)
Q3. Hubbell/Donohue USA - 28 (USA 15, CAN 13)
4. Chock/Bates USA - 26 (FRA 13, CHN 13)
5. Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen CAN - 22 (USA 11, CHN 11)
6. Hurtado/Khaliavin ESP - 18 (CAN 7, RUS 11)
—
Still with a shot at the FInal
Papadakis/Cizeron FRA - 15 (FRA 15, JPN ??)
Stepanova/Bukin RUS - 13 (USA 13, JPN ??)
Guignard/Fabbri ITA - 11 (FRA 11, JPN ??)
Fear/Gibson GBR - 11 (CAN 11, JPN ??)
Wang/Liu CHN - 9 (CHN 9, JPN ??)
Carreira/Ponomarenko USA - 5 (USA 5, JPN ??)
VERY HIGH: Papadakis/Cizeron, Stepanova/Bukin, Chock/Bates
Probably the easiest discipline of the four to call. Papadakis/Cizeron are heavy favorites to win, with Stepanova/Bukin favorites for silver. Even if Stepanova/Bukin get fourth, they will still finish ahead of Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen on the tiebreaker of their second place at Skate America. Unless Guignard/Fabbri or Fear/Gibson win gold (and Stepanova/Bukin finish second and Papadakis/Cizeron finish third), chances of which are miniscule, Chock/Bates are also into the Final.
VERY LOW: Guignard/Fabbri, Fear/Gibson
As mentioned above, one of these teams will need a huge, huge upset for them to get to the Final. But because they are still in the mix in competition, their chances are still higher than all of the rest. Guignard/Fabbri, because of their first Grand Prix score and their scoring potential, have a better chance than Fear/Gibson do.