Believe it or not, the first Grand Prix of the COVID season is about to take place. Skate America is taking place in an audience-free bubble environment in Las Vegas. And while it won’t be the same for the athletes skating in front of a bunch of cardboard cutout audience members, the virtual experience will actually be pretty similar for the many fans who stream skating competitions every season online.
The four Grand Prix competitions that remain (Skate Canada and Internationaux de France were cancelled over COVID concerns) will feature a vastly domestic field of competitors, and Skate America will be no different. Only six of the 44 entries will represent non-American skaters. It’ll be a very different feel to the first Grand Prix of the COVID season.
So what are my data points for making these predictions? Well, at least there was US Figure Skating’s International Selection Pool Points Challenge virtual competition that happened in September. And then, the second data point is a shot in the dark. Here goes!
2020 Skate America predictions
Official hashtag: #SkateAmerica2020
Men predictions Top 6
GOLD Nathan Chen USA
SILVER Vincent Zhou USA
BRONZE Keegan Messing CAN
4. Tomoki Hiwatashi USA
5. Alex Krasnozhon USA
6. Jimmy Ma USA
Far and away, Nathan Chen will come into Skate America as the heavy favorite to win his fourth Skate America title, though this one will definitely have a different context to it than the rest. It’s the pre-Olympic season and he’s taking some calculated choreographic risks with his Desperado short - a mix of classical Spanish guitar and mariachi music - and a contemporary classical piece with his Philip Glass free. Both programs are geared toward continuing to fuse his technical with his artistic range.
We have yet to see either Vincent Zhou or Keegan Messing in action this season, but given their past successes, you’d have to think that they are in the mix for the podium this week. Zhou is coming off an uneven last season where he started subpar and ended with renewed fire and motivation, and Messing was dealing with family tragedy last year that understandably affected him throughout. And based on the ISP competition over the summer, some combination of Tomoki Hiwatashi, Alex Krasnohon, and Jimmy Ma should round out those top spots. But there are some unknowns in veterans like Alexei Bychenko and Daniel Samohin, fresh-out-of-juniors like Maxim Naumov and Ilia Malinin. Should be a fun event.
Pairs predictions Top 4
GOLD Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson USA
SILVER Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier USA
BRONZE Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc USA
4. Tarah Kayne/Danny O’Shea USA
Perhaps my biggest takeaway in pairs from the ISP Points Challenge last month was that training mates Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson and Alexa Knierim/Brand Frazier have separated themselves from the rest of the US pairs early this season. And that’s not to say that they’ve pulled away and aren’t looking back, because you have two US champions on their heels in Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc and Tarah Kayne/Danny O’Shea.
But it is to say that Calalang/Johnson and Knierim/Frazier have gotten off to a fast start and look to be the ones to fight for that title here. Cain-Gribble/LeDuc have a history of proving the doubters wrong, and two clean skates can get them right in the mix as well.
Dance predictions Top 4
GOLD Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue USA
SILVER Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker USA
BRONZE Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko USA
4. Caroline Green/Michael Parsons USA
Like the men’s event, the dance event at Skate America have a clear favorite in former US champs Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue. With rivals and training mates Madison Chock/Evan Bates having withdrawn from the event earlier, the path is plenty open for them to win their third Skate America title. Their goal here is to make a splash and regain some of the momentum that they had in the post-Olympic season. Their free dance could become a showstopper.
The battle for the ice dance silver will be the one to watch - Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker have been steady and improving over the past few seasons, firmly planted in that third spot for the US, but Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko have been making a surge to try to catch them, which would be particularly momentous in the pre-Olympic season. This will be one of many times we will be seeing them head-to-head as we look toward Beijing in 2022.
Ladies predictions Top 6
GOLD Mariah Bell USA
SILVER Bradie Tennell USA
BRONZE Amber Glenn USA
4. Karen Chen USA
5. Audrey Shin USA
6. Starr Andrews USA
Since the 2018 Olympics, the US senior women has seen a budding rivalry between Mariah Bell and Bradie Tennell, both on the podium at Nationals the past two years (behind Alysa Liu, who is still too young to be eligible for the Grand Prix). The two of them have pushed each other to be better and more consistent, with each other’s strengths as motivation to work on their weaknesses. Bell seemed to have turned the tide more recently with a breakthrough last season, and Tennell has since relocated to Colorado Springs to work with new coach Tom Zakrajsek.
Behind them and perhaps the potential to play the spoiler role is Amber Glenn, who has shown off a very impressive triple axel in practice this summer. We should be seeing it at least in the short program here at Skate America, and it could be a differentiator for her. Former US champ Karen Chen has looked strong and well-conditioned during the summer and could also surprise. But if you were to pick a really dark horse, it would be new senior Audrey Shin, who has shown some real promise over the past couple of months.