One of the big headlines from the men’s event at last week’s Skate America was that Nathan Chen did not win the event - it was the first time that he had taken anything but gold away from an event since the Olympics. But it’s another week, and another competition, and Chen is back to try to re-center himself with a completely different field of challengers. The matchups to watch may very well be among the Canadian men, who are trying to make a case for who gets the two Olympic spots.
2021 Skate Canada International predictions
Official hashtags: #SCI21 #GPFigure
GOLD Nathan Chen USA - There was a lot of doom and gloom last week at Skate America, and a lot of it was the result of Chen not finishing with the title. It’s not as if he’s been perfect in every single competition since PyeongChang; it’s more that even when he had mistakes, and there were competitions where he made as many mistakes as he did in Vegas last week, he was still able to grab gold. It didn’t help that he was in a competition with two former World medalists either. So the question is more around his mindset and where he is with such a short turnaround after Vegas. Will we see a different short program? Will he go for six quads again? Has he been able to reset and refocus? Either way, this week is not nearly the minefield that it was last week, and he comes in again as the favorite.
SILVER Jason Brown USA - Brown’s season got off to a solid start with a win at Finlandia trophy over names like Messing and Kolyada. And though he wasn’t flawless there, it was a good first step in his quest to get back to the Olympics after the disappointment four years ago. His two programs this season are absolute classics, particularly his short program, and he will be looking to get his Grand Prix Series off to a fast start.
BRONZE Keegan Messing CAN - Fourth at Finlandia Trophy, Messing had a strong short followed by a messy free. It’s amazing to think that he’s been the top Canadian internationally over the past few years, but he has still yet to win a Canadian title. And in this field, he could finish on the podium or he could be in the bottom six - just depends on how well he’s able to hold it together when the jumps pile up in the free skate.
4. Evgeni Semenenko RUS - The hero of Worlds for the Russian men, Semenenko was a surprise eighth in Stockholm and helped secure the possibility of a third spot at the Olympics (which was subsequently earned by Mark Kondratiuk at Nebelhorn). But the start of his season has been choppy, having had a rough short program at Finlandia and had to make a comeback in the free to finish fifth overall.
5. Morisi Kvitelashvili GEO - I can literally put Kvitelashvili anywhere from third to 12th and all of those scenarios could be equally likely. I’ve never really been able to pin down any sort of pattern with his performances, with the exception of the 2019-20 season, where he was actually fairly consistent in his scores. But last year, there was a 70-point swing between his best and worst showings.
6. Makar Ignatov RUS - The Russian silver medalist from last season missed out on a Worlds spot because of a poor showing at the last competition that determined the Worlds spots, and he will be looking to rebound to make his case for the Olympic team. He’s got big jumps and solid basics, but his conditioning often takes away from his performance in the free skate.
7. Alexander Samarin RUS - The four-time Russian medalist is no stranger to the Grand Prix - in fact, he has won four medals on the Grand Prix and even made it to the Final two years ago. But while he’s got big difficulty and big jumps, he hasn’t found consistency over the past couple of years.
8. Keiji Tanaka JPN - Tanaka made the Olympic team four years ago, and is trying for a second Olympic team, but the field of Japanese men has gotten deeper over the past four years, especially with the rise of a few up-and-comers who have somewhat overshadowed him recently. He’s still one of the most entertaining all-around skaters in the field, and has a shot at the top half if he can skate clean.
9. Tomoki Hiwatashi USA - Hiwatashi has yet to really find a groove in international events, especially early in the season. And while he’s had some of his great performances later in the season (including the US Championships and at Junior Worlds, where he won in 2019), his early seasons tend to be inconsistent. He was fifth at Lombardia in early September.
10. Roman Sadovsky CAN - Sadovsky did his job at Nebelhorn Trophy, earning that second spot for the Canadian men for Beijing. But it was a close, close call, as he grabbed that final spot by just over four points ahead of the first alternate after two subpar programs. His trajectory this season will be crucial for him to get that spot that he earned.
11. Sota Yamamoto JPN - There was a time when Yamamoto was looking like he could potentially become the next big thing in Japanese men’s skating, but an almost career-ending injury and subsequent inconsistency after he made his comeback have kept him from making a name for himself. He has shown some progress early this season domestically.
12. Conrad Orzel CAN - He won in a smaller domestic field at Autumn Classic a couple months ago. Orzel returns to the Grand Prix and makes his first appearance at Skate Canada this week.