Of the Grand Prix events so far, Gran Premio D’Italia may be have the most unpredictable men’s field - and the men have generally been pretty unpredictable this season to begin with. There is a whole lot of talent in Italy this week, but a lot of the contenders have also been fairly inconsistent in their careers, and results could be all over the place (think last week, when Morisi Kvitelashvili finished last in the short program and then ended up sixth overall).
2021 Gran Premio d’Italia predictions
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GOLD Yuma Kagiyama JPN - For some, Kagiyama’s silver medal at Worlds last season was a huge surprise. For others, a podium finish was completely within the realm of possibility, especially considering the trajectory he had been on for the past few seasons. As someone who has only been a senior skater for a season - and that was a curtailed pandemic season - he more than holds his own against the veterans on the senior circuit. He’s also added the quad loop to his competitive repertoire this year, showing that he’s not just gunning for just the podium - he’s got his eyes on gold.
SILVER Mikhail Kolyada RUS - We saw a new-found consistency in his jumps last season, but he hasn’t quite had the same kind of start to this Olympic season. And though on paper, it would seem that he’s one of the favorites for gold or silver, if some of his past inconsistencies sneak in again, he could find himself off the podium. Kolyada won silver at Finlandia Trophy last month.
BRONZE Petr Gumennik RUS - Fresh off a very strong win at the Denis Ten Memorial last weekend, Gumennik delivered two of the best programs he’s ever skated in international competition there. And if he can repeat that this week, he’s got all the goods to get himself on the podium at this very unpredictable competition. For someone like him, who hasn’t necessarily been at the top of many people’s lists for one of the three Russian men’s spots for the Olympics, a huge competition at the Grand Prix level could really catapult him into new heights going into national championship season.
4. Dmitri Aliev RUS - Still recovering from an injury he had during the off-season, the former Russian champion is looking to continue to progress toward Russian Nationals. The training time he lost from his injury seems to have sapped some of his program stamina so far this season, so it’s not only the consistency he will be looking to improve, but also how well he can get through his two programs. If he’s clean, he’s one of the best here, but he’s likely still not at 100% yet.
5. Daniel Grassl ITA - Grassl is the only one in this field who has skated in another Grand Prix this season - he was seventh at Skate America two weeks ago. There were some positives to take out of that competition - and also out of his win at Lombardia Trophy - but it will be important for him to get off to a better start than both of his competitions so far this season, where he made mistakes in the short program.
6. Boyang Jin CHN - Consistency has really been an issue for Jin over the past few seasons - his prowess is in his technical elements, so when he makes mistakes, the rest of his programs tend to suffer more. Though he won bronze at Asian Open earlier this season, his performances there were marred by a number of mistakes.
7. Kazuki Tomono JPN - Lest we forget, Tomono was fifth at his debut (and to date, only) World Championships for seasons ago, so we know he can make things happen. His issue often is that when he makes mistakes, they tend to be popped jumps, which are generally costlier than falls on rotated jumps. He was fifth earlier in the year in an all-Japanese Japan Open.
8. Deniss Vasiljevs LAT - Fourth at Asian Open to start his season, Vasiljevs is one of those skaters with solid basics but struggle with the bigger technical elements. Even if he can just keep all of his triple jumps clean, he can very well find himself in the top half, but the points he can lose with underrotations really hurt his chances at getting up there.
9. Junhwan Cha KOR - Cha’s career-high tenth at Worlds last season gave South Korea the potential for two men’s spots at the Olympics (that second spot was earned earlier this season by Siyeong Lee), and his skating last season looked to have cleaned up some of the underrotation issues he’s had in the past. But in his sixth-place finish at Asian Open a few weeks ago, those underrotations came back. He will need to be a lot cleaner this week for him to find himself in the top half of this field.
10. Gabriele Frangipani ITA - The Italian bronze medalist is trying to figure out a way to pull the upset this season to earn a spot on the Italian Olympic team. He was fourth at Nebelhorn and tenth at Finlandia - with some promising progress in his jumps and in his basics.
11. Paul Fentz GER - A 13th-place finish at Nebelhorn Trophy earlier this season kept Fentz from qualifying a men’s spot for Germany for the Olympics. He has finished as high as sixth on the Grand Prix, and when clean, he’s got some of the smoothest jumps in the business.
12. Yudong Chen CHN - In his first senior season, Chen has been one of the promising junior men on the Chinese roster. He finished third at a domestic Cup of China last season but was only ninth at Asian Open a few weeks ago after registering a total of seven falls across his two programs.