Grand Prix Final qualifiers and substitutes
Men
Q1. Yuma Kagiyama JPN - 30 (ITA 15, FRA 15)
Q2. Shoma Uno JPN - 28 (USA 13, JPN 15)
Q3. Vincent Zhou USA - 28 (USA 15, JPN 13)
Q4. Nathan Chen USA - 26 (USA 11, CAN 15)
Q5. Mikhail Kolyada RUS - 26 (ITA 13, RUS 13)
Q6. Jason Brown USA - 24 (CAN 13, FRA 11)
S1. Shun Sato JPN - 22 (USA 9, FRA 13)
S2. Morisi Kvitelashvili GEO - 20 (CAN 5, RUS 15)
S3. Junhwan Cha KOR - 18 (ITA 7, JPN 11)
Dance
Q1. Papadakis/Cizeron FRA - 30 (ITA 15, FRA 15)
Q2. Sinitsina/Katsalapov RUS - 30 (JPN 15, RUS 15)
Q3. Hubbell/Donohue USA - 28 (USA 15, ITA 13)
Q4. Gilles/Poirier CAN - 28 (CAN 15, FRA 13)
Q5. Chock/Bates USA - 26 (USA 13, JPN 13)
Q6. Guignard/Fabbri ITA - 26 (CAN 13, RUS 13)
S1. Stepanova/Bukin RUS - 22 (ITA 11, FRA 11)
S2. Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen CAN - 22 (USA 11, RUS 11)
S3. Smart/Diaz ESP - 20 (USA 9, CAN 11)
Pairs
Q1. Mishina/Galliamov RUS - 30 (JPN 15, RUS 15)
Q2. Sui/Han CHN - 30 (CAN 15, ITA 15)
Q3. Tarasova/Morozov RUS - 28 (USA 15, JPN 13)
Q4. Boikova/Kozlovskii RUS - 26 (USA 11, FRA 15)
Q5. Pavliuchenko/Khodykin RUS - 26 (CAN 13, RUS 13)
Q6. Miura/Kihara JPN - 24 (USA 13, JPN 11)
S1. Artemeva/Nazarychev RUS - 24 (ITA 11, FRA 13)
S2. Knierim/Frazier USA - 20 (USA 9, FRA 11)
S3. Cain-Gribble/LeDuc USA - 20 (CAN 11, JPN 9)
Women
Q1. Kamila Valieva RUS - 30 (CAN 15, RUS 15)
Q2. Anna Shcherbakova RUS - 30 (ITA 15, FRA 15)
Q3. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS - 26 (CAN 13, RUS 13)
Q4. Kaori Sakamoto JPN - 24 (USA 9, JPN 15)
Q5. Maiia Khromykh RUS - 24 (ITA 13, RUS 11)
Q6. Alena Kostornaia RUS - 24 (CAN 11, FRA 13)
S1. Young You KOR - 22 (USA 11, JPN 11)
S2. Loena Hendrickx BEL - 18 (ITA 11, RUS 7)
S3. Mai Mihara JPN - 18 (CAN 9, ITA 9)
Junior Grand Prix Final qualifiers and substitutes
Men
Q1. Ilia Malinin USA
Q2. Ilya Yablokov RUS
Q3. Gleb Lutfullin RUS
Q4. Kirill Sarnovskiy RUS
Q5. Wesley Chiu CAN
Q6. Egor Rukhin RUS
Wild card: Lucas Tsuyoshi Honda JPN
S1. Artem Kovalev RUS
S2. Mikhail Shaidorov KAZ
S3. Arlet Levandi EST
Pairs
Q1. Chikmareva/Ianchenkov RUS
Q2. Khabibullina/Knyazhuk RUS
Q3. Mukhortova/Evgenyev RUS
Q4. Petushkova/Malikov RUS
S1. Safina/Berulava GEO
S2. Kostiukovich/Briukhanov RUS
S3. Storublevtseva/Gritsaenko RUS
Dance
Q1. Khavronina/Cirisano RUS
Q2. Kaganovskaia/Angelopol RUS
Q3. Wolfkostin/Chen USA
Q4. D’Alessandro/Waddell CAN
Q5. Tyutyunina/Shustitskiy RUS
Q6. Brown/Brown USA
S1. Leonteva/Gorelkin RUS
S2. Flores/Tsarevski USA
S3. Makita/Gunara CAN
Women
Q1. Sofia Akateva RUS
Q2. Veronika Zhilina RUS
Q3. Sofia Muravieva RUS
Q4. Adeliia Petrosian RUS
Q5. Isabeau Levito USA
Q6. Lindsay Thorngren USA
Wild card: Rion Sumiyoshi JPN
S1. Anastasia Zinina RUS
S2. Sofia Samodelkina RUS
S3. Chae-yeon Kim KOR
Standings after 2021 Internationaux de France - Bold indicates that the skater/team has completed all of their Grand Prix events; Q indicates that the skater/team has mathematically qualified for the Final.
With one qualifying event left for the Grand Prix Final, I break down the chances for skaters who still mathematically have a shot at qualifying.
Grand Prix Final standings after Internationaux de France
Men Top 6 (after France)
Q1. Yuma Kagiyama JPN - 30 (ITA 15, FRA 15)
Q2. Shoma Uno JPN - 28 (USA 13, JPN 15)
Q3. Vincent Zhou USA - 28 (USA 15, JPN 13)
Q4. Nathan Chen USA - 26 (USA 11, CAN 15)
Q5. Jason Brown USA - 24 (CAN 13, FRA 11)
6. Shun Sato JPN - 22 (USA 9, FRA 13)
— Still in the running for a GP Final spot —
- Mikhail Kolyada RUS - 13 (ITA 13, RUS ??)
- Evgeni Semenenko RUS - 11 (CAN 11, RUS ??)
- Matteo Rizzo ITA - 7 (JPN 7, RUS ??)
HIGH/VERY HIGH: Jason Brown, Mikhail Kolyada
Kolyada needs to finish first or second to guarantee a spot; if he finishes third, there are still possibilities based on tiebreaks; if he finishes fourth, there is mathematically a chance but that chance is very low.
Brown still has a very decent look at the Final; if Kolyada finishes first or second as he is expected to, there would need to be a lot of things going right for Semenenko to overtake Brown for that spot.
LOW/MEDIUM: Evgeni Semenenko
If Kolyada finishes first or second at Rostelecom, Semenenko makes it if he wins or finishes second with 267.75 or higher to break the tie between him and Brown. If Kolyada finishes third, Semenenko would need to win or finish second and win the tiebreak between either Brown or Kolyada. Given that Kolyada finishing lower than second in this field is a lower probability, Semenenko’s chances go down.
VERY LOW: Matteo Rizzo, Shun Sato - Without Yuzuru Hanyu in the field, it would take a lot for either Rizzo or Sato to make it into the Final, given the potential finishes of Kolyada and Semenenko.
For Rizzo to make it to the Final, it would require 1) him to win Rostelecom Cup, AND 2) for Kolyada to finish fourth or lower, AND 3) for Semenenko to finish third or lower.
For Sato to maintain his current sixth position, it would require 1) Kolyada to finish fourth or lower, and Sato to beat Kolyada in the tiebreak if Kolyada finishes fourth, AND 2) Semenenko to finish third or lower, AND 3) for Rizzo to finish second or lower
Pairs Top 10 (after France)
Q1. Sui/Han CHN - 30 (CAN 15, ITA 15)
Q2. Tarasova/Morozov RUS - 28 (USA 15, JPN 13)
Q3. Boikova/Kozlovskii RUS - 26 (USA 11, FRA 15)
4. Miura/Kihara JPN - 24 (USA 13, JPN 11)
5. Artemeva/Nazarychev RUS - 24 (ITA 11, FRA 13)
6. Knierim/Frazier USA - 20 (USA 9, FRA 11)
— Still in the running for a GP Final spot —
- Mishina/Galliamov RUS - 15 (JPN 15, RUS ??)
- Pavliuchenko/Khodykin RUS - 13 (CAN 13, RUS ??)
- Della Monica/Guarise ITA - 9 (ITA 9, RUS ??)
- Lu/Mitrofanov USA - 7 (JPN 7, RUS ??)
- Moore-Towers/Marinaro CAN - 5 (CAN 5, RUS ??)
VERY HIGH: Mishina/Galliamov, Miura/Kihara
Because of their win at NHK, the door is wide open for them because of tiebreak possibilities. They need to finish fourth or higher to guarantee a spot - basically a lock unless crazy things happen.
Miura/Kihara is in a very strong position going into Rostelecom Cup. The only way they don’t make it is if Della Monica/Guarise win.
HIGH: Pavliuchenko/Khodykin
They are very much in the driver’s seat - if Mishina/Galliamov win any medal at Rostelecom, they would need first or second to guarantee a spot, and third if they can beat at least Artemeva/Nazarychev in the tiebreak. Other scenarios are possible but low probability.
LOW: Artemeva/Nazarychev
Their path in the Final requires either Mishina/Galliamov or Pavliuchenko/Khodykin to have a really bad competition. It’s not out of the realm of possibility.
VERY LOW: Della Monica/Guarise, Knierim/Frazier, Lu/Mitrofanov, Moore-Towers/Marinaro
Because Della Monica/Guarise, Lu/Mitrofanov, and Moore-Towers/Marinaro start off without a podium finish at their other event, their path to the Final will very likely require a win AND a whole bunch of other unlikely scenarios to take place.
It’s highly unlikely that Knierim/Frazier will hold onto their 6th spot given the number of pairs still left to compete at Rostelecom who could overtake them.
Dance Top 6 (after France)
Q1. Papadakis/Cizeron FRA - 30 (ITA 15, FRA 15)
Q2. Hubbell/Donohue USA - 28 (USA 15, ITA 13)
Q3. Gilles/Poirier CAN - 28 (CAN 15, FRA 13)
4. Chock/Bates USA - 26 (USA 13, JPN 13)
5. Stepanova/Bukin RUS - 22 (ITA 11, FRA 11)
6. Smart/Diaz ESP - 20 (USA 9, CAN 11)
— Still in the running for a GP Final spot —
- Sinitsina/Katsalapov RUS - 15 (JPN 15, RUS ??)
- Guignard/Fabbri ITA - 13 (CAN 13, RUS ??)
- Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen CAN - 11 (USA 11, RUS ??)
- Hurtado/Khaliavin ESP - 9 (JPN 9, RUS ??)
VERY HIGH: Chock/Bates, Sinitsina/Katsalapov
The only way Chock/Bates doesn’t get into the Final is if Fournier/Beaudry win, Sinitsina Katsapalov third, and Guignard/Fabbri second with the tiebreaker in total scores across the two competitions.
For Sinitsina/Katsalapov, a podium finish guarantees them a spot in the Final, with a few low probability scenarios if they finish fourth.
HIGH: Guignard/Fabbri
Because of their silver at Skate Canada, they have the upper had against Stepanova/Bukin, who finished with two bronzes. It would require them to finish fourth and Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen to finish second for them to get knocked out, among other scenarios.
VERY LOW: Fournier Beaudry/Sorensen, Hurtado/Khaliavin, Smart/Diaz, Stepanova/Bukin
Because none of them have anything higher than a bronze medal, it will be incredibly difficult for any of them to make it into the Final.
Women Top 6 (after France)
Q1. Anna Shcherbakova RUS - 30 (ITA 15, FRA 15)
Q2. Kaori Sakamoto JPN - 24 (USA 9, JPN 15)
3. Alena Kostornaia RUS - 24 (CAN 11, FRA 13)
4. Young You KOR - 22 (USA 11, JPN 11)
5. Mai Mihara JPN - 18 (CAN 9, ITA 9)
6. Wakaba Higuchi JPN - 16 (CAN 5, FRA 11)
— Still in the running for a GP Final spot —
- Kamila Valieva RUS - 15 (CAN 15, RUS ??)
- Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS - 13 (CAN 13, RUS ??)
- Maiia Khromykh RUS - 13 (ITA 13, RUS ??)
- Loena Hendrickx BEL - 11 (ITA 11, RUS ??)
- Mariah Bell USA - 5 (FRA 5, RUS ??)
- Rino Matsuike JPN - 5 (JPN 5, RUS ??)
- Madeline Schizas CAN - 3 (CAN 3, RUS ??)
VERY HIGH: Alena Kostornaia, Kamila Valieva
For Kostornaia, she was very close to clinching a spot mathematically, but unless one of a few very low probability scenarios happen (all of which require Hendrickx to win the event and Valieva to finish fourth), she’s in the Final.
For Valieva, anything fourth or higher will guarantee her a spot in the Final. A fifth place with very low probability scenarios could also put her into the Final.
HIGH: Maiia Khromykh, Elizaveta Tuktamysheva
For both of them, the 13 points from their silver medal finishes will go a long way in helping them get into the Final. And for both, gold or silver would put them into the Final, with bronze incredibly likely even if they don’t have enough points to win any tiebreaks. But they would need a medal to guarantee, with some scenarios of a fourth place finish still getting them in because of their silver medal tiebreak.
LOW: Loena Hendrickx, Young You
With a bronze medal and 11 points coming in, a win would get Hendrickx a spot in the Final, and silver with a whole lot of points for tiebreaks would also get her into the Final. But both scenarios are low probability, with a few other even lower probability scenarios outside of those.
Young You is very much on the bubble and will need help from lower than expected finishes for at least two of the four medal contenders this week to get into the Final.
VERY LOW: Mariah Bell, Wakaba Higuchi, Rino Matsuike, Mai Mihara, Madeline Schizas
Unless a whole lot of unexpected things happen here, it is almost impossible for any of these five skaters to get into the Final.