There’s never been any doubt that there’s a lot of talent in Japanese figure skating. But the past few years have seen lower consistency in the upper ranks of the singles events, and that’s made the suspense of who makes it through to the year-end championships a bit lower than in years past.
But all of that has changed this season, particularly on the women’s side, where the fight for the three Olympic spots may come down to the wire. This week’s 2021-22 Japan Figure Skating Championships will also see the return of Yuzuru Hanyu, who has been out of competition all season while nursing an injury. How will he fare?
2021-22 Japan Figure Skating Championships predictions
Official hashtag: #全日本フィギュア
Women top ten predictions
GOLD Kaori Sakamoto
SILVER Wakaba Higuchi
BRONZE Satoko Miyahara
4. Mai Mihara
5. Mana Kawabe
6. Rino Matsuike
7. Yuhana Yokoi
8. Rion Sumiyoshi
9. Rinka Watanabe
10. Mone Chiba
Four years ago, Kaori Sakamoto had a brilliant debut senior season and made it to her first Olympics with a silver medal at Japan Nationals. Since then, she won a Japanese title and then went through a slump, only to come back last season looking like herself again. With Rika Kihira, who won the last two titles, out with injury and seemingly with no route to the Olympics, Sakamoto come in as the favorite and the race for the Olympic spots is wide open among a number of skaters who have both had success at Japan Nationals and have put out great performances this season.
On paper, there looks to be five skaters who are vying for those three Olympic spots - Sakamoto, Wakaba Higuchi, Mana Kawabe, Mai Mihara, and Satoko Miyahara. And what is so exciting is that all of these skaters, Sakamoto included, seem to be coming in much more consistent than they were this time last year. The triple axel is key for Higuchi and Kawabe, while clean programs will be key for Mihara and Miyahara.
Outside of that core group, there are also plenty of great skaters who haven’t had as strong of a season so far but have proven in the past that they can very much play the dark horse role here this week. Marin Honda, Rin Nitaya, Yuna Shiraiwa, Mako Yamashita, and Yuhana Yokoi are familiar faces, though Honda, the most well-known of that group, has had a tough time getting back to near her old form because of coaching inconsistency and injuries. The up-and-coming younger skaters could also make a statement - Rino Matsuike was fourth at Japan Nationals last year, and she will be joined by rising stars Rion Sumiyoshi and Mone Chiba here this week.
Men top ten predictions
GOLD Shoma Uno
SILVER Yuma Kagiyama
BRONZE Yuzuru Hanyu
4. Shun Sato
5. Kazuki Tomono
6. Sota Yamamoto
7. Kao Miura
8. Keiji Tanaka
9. Koshiro Shimada
10. Lucas Tsuyoshi Honda
I’m going to caveat everything by saying that, as of this writing, we literally have no idea what Yuzuru Hanyu’s training has been like - not just since he reinjured in ankle, but also all season. And so - yes - take this prediction with a grain of salt, because he could come in and win the whole thing like nothing happened, or he could make mistakes and be off the top spot.
My placement of Hanyu behind Shoma Uno and Yuma Kagiyama is solely with the thinking that he likely hasn’t had much time to prepare since his injury, and so his first time out this season may not be either as consistent as he would want it to be or as difficult as he would otherwise have his content be, or both. It would not at all be a surprise if Hanyu watered down his content as he recovers from that injury and tries to be as clean as he can be. But Hanyu is Hanyu - and we’ve seen how superhuman he’s been in the past.
If this were last season, it would seem like that trio of Hanyu-Kagiyama-Uno would be heavy favorites for that Olympic team, but we’ve seen great skating from Shun Sato and Kazuki Tomono this season. This is likely the most nerve-racking competition of the season, and we’ve seen how it’s played games on skaters’ minds. And watch for Kao Miura, who has loads of talent and has a high ceiling with his technical content.
Dance predictions
GOLD Kana Muramoto/Daisuke Takahashi
SILVER Misato Komatsubara/Tim Koleto
BRONZE Ayumi Takanami/Shingo Nishiyama
4. Kiria Hirayama/Aru Tateno
5. Haruno Yajima/Yoshimitsu Ikeda
Who would’ve thought even just a few years ago that Japan Nationals would field seven senior ice dance teams? The legacy of Reed/Reed, Muramoto/Reed, and, more recently, Komatsubara/Koleto - who are here this week - has set the stage for a rising popularity of ice dance in the world of Japanese figure skating. And even though two of those teams withdrew because of travel restrictions, we still have five solid teams competing this week.
And if you have been tuning into Japanese figure skating over the past couple of seasons, you will know that five-time Japanese singles champ Daisuke Takahashi made a jump (or a twizzle) to ice dance and teamed up with Kana Muramoto. Last year, they made their nationals debut with silver, but they are a completely different team this season, and have a strong shot at winning the title. The battle between them and three-time and defending champs Misato Komatsubara/Tim Koleto will be scintillating, and it could very well come down to a matter of levels and execution.
*Note: Riku Miura/Ryuichi Kihara withdrew last week because of the potential implications of travel restrictions to their training. They have already been assigned the one pair spot for Japan for the Beijing Olympics. There will be one pair skating at Japan Nationals, Miyu Yunoki/Shoya Ichihashi.