There have been six World Team Trophy events dating back to 2009, and the US and Japan have come away as the victorious team in all of those events, with Russia and Canada both having take second twice each. This week, Team Russia is looking to flip the script on WTT and win their first title, as their team boasts three of the four current world champions who were crowned just a few weeks ago in Stockholm. After an unorthodox ride of season, we will end the 2020-21 season with a celebration of figure skating in Osaka this week.
The keys to victory
There are a few very specific things about how World Team Trophy is scored that change the way that the scoring leans. A few notes for viewers that may change the way you root for your favorite team(s):
Team scores are based on placements - Each team's total score is based on placements (in singles, 12 points for 1st through 1 point for 12th; in pairs/dance, 12 points for 1st through 7 points for 6th), so it doesn't matter how large your margin of victory is; it only matters that you finish ahead of other skaters.
Short and free are separate - There is no combined total for skaters, so if a skater/team bombs one program, he/she/they can still contribute greatly to the team score in the other program.
Pairs/dance provide a different dynamic - You'll notice that there are six pairs and six dance teams, as opposed to 12 men and 12 women. Why is that important? Well, the scoring is that the pairs and dance teams finishing lowest still get SEVEN points, whereas the single skaters who finish lowest only get ONE point. In that way, teams with less prowess in pairs and dance have less of a disadvantage than teams with less prowess in singles.
World Team Trophy predictions
Official hashtag: #WTTFigure
Team predictions
1. Team Russia
2. Team United States
3. Team Japan
4. Team France
5. Team Italy
6. Team Canada
MEN
The men’s competition is going to be intense, with seven of the top nine skaters from Worlds back this week to compete. The skating world will be excited to behold another head-to-head between three-time World champ Nathan Chen and two-time Olympic champ Yuzuru Hanyu. This will likely be the biggest strength in scoring potential for both Team Japan (Hanyu and Shoma Uno) and Team United States (Chen and Jason Brown). If either of those teams are looking to win another WTT, getting their two skaters in the top three or top four will go a long way toward making that happen.
For Team Russia, this is their “weakest” event in scoring potential - and I put that in quotes because they are still pretty strong here. Mikhail Kolyada and Evgeni Semenenko will both need to keep that consistency going to keep their team in the running.
Note that Team Italy will only have one entry here with Daniel Grassl. Teammate Matteo Rizzo withdrew before departing for Japan because he tested positive for COVID-19 - the rules do not state whether a withdrawal gets 0 points or 1 point (12th place). Either way, since WTT team points are scored on a placement basis, as opposed to a program points basis, Rizzo’s withdrawal will have a relatively smaller impact on Team Italy’s overall standing.
PAIRS
Pairs will showcase newly-crowned World champs Anastasia Mishina/Aleksandr Galliamov, who were the somewhat surprise winners in Stockholm in March. They headline the field here, with Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier, Nicole Della Monica/Matteo Guarise, and Riku Miura/Ryuichi Kihara - all top 10 finishers at Worlds - jockeying for spots and placement points.
Pairs will be such an intriguing part of the race for the Trophy, because one mistake can really shake up some of those standings. If Team United States or Team Japan have any potential openings in catching Team Russia or passing each other, that opportunity may come in the pairs’ event.
DANCE
Potentially the most straight-forward of the four disciplines in terms of team placements, the ice dance competition will feature World champs Victoria Sinitsina/Nikita Katsalapov, Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri (6th at Worlds), and Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker (8th at Worlds).
The ones to potentially make some waves for their team are Misato Komatsubara/Tim Koleto, who could boost Team Japan’s chances if they can manage to get a fourth-place in either phase of the competition.
LADIES
Here’s the event that could really shake things up for the team standings, and that’s because, on paper, Team Russia has the biggest potential advantage here because their two skaters both just medaled at Worlds. But that is also to say, six of the top nine from Worlds are here, and so you could really see some standings mayhem if the placements here are not as expected.
For World champ Anna Shcherbakova, the potential equalizer could come during the short program, where there are no quads allowed for the women. It becomes the battle of clean programs and the battle of triple axels, which current World silver medalist Elizaveta Tuktamysheva and Japanese champ Rika Kihira have. Here to complicate the predictions even more is Kihira’s back pain this week, which kept her from optimal practice. But Kihira and Sakamoto could make some waves if they manage to beat one or even both of the Russian women in either phase of the competition.
For Team United States, if Karen Chen can channel the performances that led her to a fourth-place at Worlds and Bradie Tennell can regain some of that form she had at US Nationals, the ladies event could be the event that decides it all.