The past four US Championships have been split between Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue and Madison Chock/Evan Bates - Chock/Bates also won a US title back in 2015 - and this will be the final time we see this showdown between two of the stalwarts in American ice dance, as Hubbell/Donohue have announced that this will be their final season. With three Olympic spots on the line, those two teams are locked up, especially considering the selection criteria. But that third spot is more open than it was a season ago, and Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker come in looking to secure that spot that looked to be squarely theirs for the past few years.
This competition will likely be split among three tiers - 1-2, 3-5, and then 6-10 or 6-11. With each of those groupings having very close scores and could go any of a number of ways.
2022 US Championships predictions
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GOLD Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue - No matter how you cut it, if the top two skate clean or near-clean, the gold will come down to a matter of a couple points (if even that much). In some ways, Hubbell/Donohue have gone back to their strengths and pushed the envelope a bit more this season than we’ve seen over the past couple. And as a result, they have seemed more themselves, and more at ease with the material they are putting out there. They will be going for their fourth US title in five years, losing that one time two years ago to Chock/Bates.
SILVER Madison Chock/Evan Bates - Of the top two, Chock/Bates have been the ones who have scored the highest internationally, though in their one head-to-head at Skate America, it was Hubbell/Donohue who came out ahead by just about a point. I’ve always maintained that Grand Prix Final could’ve put the momentum on Chock/Bates’ side coming into Nationals, so it remains to be seen what the components will look like in this head-to-head. A win would give them their third title, with their first in 2015 and their second in 2020.
BRONZE Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker - A concussion for Hawayek nearly derailed their Olympic season, the spot has been one that seemed to be squarely theirs to earn for the past few seasons. But their late start and the rise of Green/Parsons have put that in some question. Had they not at all been able to compete internationally before Nationals, it would be dicier, but they put out some fine performances at Rostelecom Cup and then again during their win at Golden Spin, and it all feels right again. They will absolutely need to avoid major errors here to get that third spot.
4. Caroline Green/Michael Parsons - If there is to be a surprise at this event, it will be a sneak third-place finish from Green/Parsons, who have been turning heads this season, particularly with their phenomenal free dance. Up until Hawayek/Baker got back into international competition, Green/Parsons was holding that third spot, and even after Hawayek/Baker were back, the two teams’ scores were very comparable. Hawayek/Baker still have the edge, but it only takes a mistake or a few levels for the tables to turn.
5. Christina Carreira/Anthony Ponomarenko - For the past few seasons, Carreira/Ponomarenko have been solidly the fourth team in the US, and some would argue that they were pushing toward that third spot that Hawayek/Baker have been holding. But after their coaching change late last season, they are still getting used to their new training environments. This will be a rebuilding Nationals, of sorts, for them.
6. Emily Bratti/Ian Somerville - New team Bratti/Somerville teamed up just six month ago but have really made a splash already this season, hitting big scores for a new team at Golden Spin, where they finished fifth in their international debut. They look like they could be hot among the teams to look for in the next Olympic quad.
7. Eva Pate/Logan Bye - In their first senior international season, Pate/Bye have more than held their own, taking seventh in a strong field at Warsaw Cup. They have been seventh at Nationals the past two years.
8. Katarina Wolfkostin/Jeffrey Chen - Making their senior Nationals debut, last year’s junior champions had their junior international season interrupted by the Junior Grand Prix Final getting cancelled. They were ninth at Cup of Austria in their senior international debut.
9. Molly Cesanek/Yehor Yehorov - Also in their first senior international season, Cesanek/Yehorov come in after placing a surprise fifth last year at Nationals. They were ninth at Skate America, and more recently, sixth at Golden Spin.
10. Avonley Nguyen/Grigory Smirnov - Another new team this year, Nguyen/Smirnov both had great junior international resumes for different countries before splitting with their previous partners and teaming up for the US. They look to be a force in the future.