The women’s event at the 2022 Olympic Winter Games hasn’t started yet, but we already know that the biggest story of the event will not even be the event itself. Kamila Valieva’s positive doping test from December - one that didn’t get reported until the day after the Team Event was completed - has turned this entire Olympics into a story about that and only that. The performances we see this week from the women will always be remembered as the performances at the Olympics where the doping scandal happened.
But perhaps this is where everything changes for the sport, and perhaps even for the Olympics.
2022 Winter Olympics women predictions
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GOLD Kamila Valieva ROC - Despite the emotional rollercoaster that she’s gone through the past week, Valieva continued to be steely and focused when she had a job to do. That said, practice is practice, and competition is competition. It remains to be seen whether she will be able to push it all aside to compete. If she can get through it, she’s the one who will end up on top of the podium. As for what happens after? Her case is still to be settled in the weeks and months to come.
SILVER Alexandra Trusova ROC - Perhaps the only skater who could possibly challenge Valieva if she skates well, Trusova will need every single one of her five quads to get the job done. But the base value may very well be the thing that gets her in the conversation for gold. But first, she will need to land her first triple axel in competition in order to get past the gauntlet of the short program and put herself close enough to Valieva to have a shot. Both programs are a minefield for Trusova.
BRONZE Wakaba Higuchi JPN - This is where I go bold. The 2018 World silver medalist has never looked better than she has this season. She brings with her one of the great triple axels in the history of women’s skating, and it will be that not-so-secret weapon that could insert her into the picture as a spoiler for the podium. It’s not just the triple axel, though - her free skate is a phenomenal vehicle. Let’s see how things unfold in the short, because, like Trusova, Higuchi’s outlook at these Games will likely be decided with that very first jump.
4. Kaori Sakamoto JPN - Another skater who could spoil the ROC sweep in Beijing is Sakamoto, who was sixth in her Olympic debut four years ago. She has not been able to put out her very best on the biggest stages at Worlds, but her past several competitions, including the Team Event here, have been marvelous. No triple axel or quad, so Sakamoto starts off at a lower base, but she will be looking to squeeze out all the execution marks from her airy jumps.
5. Anna Shcherbakova ROC - After what was perhaps an injury a few days ago in practice, Shcherbakova has had a very difficult time putting down good skating in practice. She came to Beijing with hopes of potentially going for three quads in her free skate, but she may be relegated to just one after struggling to even get a quad flip launching for a couple of days. She has a history of coming through when it matters most, so don’t count her out.
6. Young You KOR - A disappointing Four Continents left her in sixth place there, and potentially just a bit exhausted from overcompeting. But she’s looked much fresher in Beijing during practice and will look to rediscover some of that form from the Grand Prix series. With triple axels in hand, she’s also got an outside shot for the podium.
7. Loena Hendrickx BEL - Fourth at Europeans, Hendrickx was the surprise in the short program there, taking second behind Valieva and announcing her arrival to the big stage with a personal best score. She will need to find some of that magic from her free skate at GP Italia, but all signs point to the potential for greatness here. Don’t forget that she was a surprise top-five finisher at Worlds last year.
8. Alysa Liu USA - We haven’t seen Liu since the short program at the US Championships, and she comes into Beijing looking to skate with joy and ready to embrace her first Olympic experience. Like a number of other women here, she’s got a triple axel ready to go - if she can hit that in the free skate, watch out.
9. Madeline Schizas CAN - She’s emerged as the best Canadian woman over the past couple of seasons, rising from almost obscurity to becoming a top ten threat in the world. She delivered a couple of solid programs in the Team Event, and she’s looking to ride that high to the individual competition.
10. Karen Chen USA - Will we get the Karen Chen who got fourth at Worlds last year? Or will we get the Karen Chen who was a ball of nerves in the short program in the Team Event? She should feel very much comforted by the fact that she’s better trained and more consistent now than she has ever been in her career - if she can trust that training and go out there to do what is most natural, she’s very much got even top six potential here.
Top 11-25 predictions
11. Yelim Kim KOR
12. Mariah Bell USA
13. Anastasiia Gubanova GEO
14. Ekaterina Kurakova POL
15. Ekaterina Ryabova AZE
16. Mana Kawabe JPN
17. Anastasiia Shabotova UKR
18. Viktoriia Safonova BLR
19. Alexia Paganini SUI
20. Nicole Schott GER
21. Natasha McKay GR
22. Jenni Saarinen FIN
23. Josefin Taljegard SWE
24. Olga Mikutina AUT
25. Kailani Craine AUS