The stage is set. After a very close race, it is Team Canada and Team China who join the pre-competition favorites - Team Japan, Team ROC, and Team USA - in the finals of the Team Event competition. With the short turnaround comes a short preview. Here’s what to expect for the battle for the team medals.
As expected, after the women’s short program, JPN, ROC, and USA separated themselves from the rest of the pack. And though Japan closed the gap against the US slightly with Wakaba Higuchi taking second place in the short, it is still looking like the battle between ROC and USA for gold, with JPN looking to figure out a way to close the gap even further for silver.
2022 Olympics Team Event predictions
Official hashtag: #Beijing2022
Methodology of predictions: The ranges of team scores are based on realistic scenarios of finishes of the potential entries based on 10+ scenarios for team finishes. Asterisk * denotes entries for which there may be more than one skater/team that can be put in those spots
GOLD Russian Olympic Committee - 71-75 points (assuming Sinitsina/Katsalapov)
Projected team: Kondratiuk*, Trusova*, Tarasova/Morozov*, Sinitsina/Katsalapov*
After the women’s short program, Team ROC put themselves squarely in the driver’s seat for the gold medal once again and it will take some disastrous skates and some huge performances from the Americans for that to not happen. The biggest question mark will once again be Mark Kondratiuk, who came through with a clutch skate in the short program. He will need to do that again in the free. And assuming that Victoria Sinitsina/Nikita Katsalapov skate in the free, it should be a victory for ROC. But there’s a big unknown - if somehow, Diana Davis/Gleb Smolkin are subbed in for the free, then the door is kicked way open for Team USA to take gold.
SILVER United States - 65-72 points
Projected team: Chen or Zhou*, Bell or Chen*, Knierim/Frazier*, Chock/Bates*
Team USA was in a very strong position with the women’s short program left, and Karen Chen’s fall on her triple loop brought the team down to earth just a bit. Nevertheless, the Americans have overperformed relative to expectations, and they will look to do the same to give themselves a shot at Team gold. Every single performance is crucial here, but in particular, a potential win for Team USA will require Vincent Zhou to win the men’s free, Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier to keep it close relative to ROC’s pair team, and the potential of Davis/Smolkin in the free dance.
BRONZE Japan - 59-63 points
Projected team: Kagiyama*, Sakamoto*, Miura/Kihara*, Komatsubara/Koleto*
Squarely in the bronze medal position and not budging, Team Japan is too far behind to make up the deficit for silver and too far ahead to drop out of the medals - and that’s a reflection of this 10-6 scoring system in the finals. What they have the opportunity to do is play the spoiler and indirectly help decide gold and silver here. In particular, where Yuma Kagiyama and Riku Miura/Ryuichi Kihara finish relative to the Americans and the Russians will have huge ramifications on the final tally.
4. Team Canada - 49-52 points
Projected team: Sadovsky, Schizas, James/Radford*, Gilles/Poirier
It will likely be a nailbiter for the fourth spot. Once again, Roman Sadovsky will be on point for the Canadian men, since Keegan Messing is finally en route to Beijing but will miss the Team Event altogether. Their advantage over China lie with Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier and Madeline Schizas, so if Vanessa James/Eric Radford (they have been skating in the Team Event practices) can put out a strong free, they will grab that fourth spot. However, if they end up in a tie with China, it may go into a second tiebreak, which favors China because that scenario would likely have Boyang Jin doing well in the free.
5. Team China - 49-52 points
Projected team: Jin, Zhu, Peng/Jin*, Wang/Liu
This projection changes quite a bit if Wenjing Sui/Cong Han starts for China in the free skate, though all indications based on practices are that Cheng Peng/Yang Jin will make the substitution. Given that Team China isn’t in the hunt for a medal, it makes sense to rest Sui/Han for the individual event. With this lineup, they will need to rely on a big performance from Boyang Jin to take fourth place.
So omg tiebreakers?
Given the scenarios, there is a potential that a tiebreaker will decide which team goes into the free skate, so let’s take a look at what that means. The tiebreaker rules somewhat favor teams with very strong strong links over teams with consistent strength in all disciplines. Here are the tiebreakers in order of operation:
Highest total team points from the two best places; if still tied, then:
Highest total segment scores of the current segment of the two best places according to team points; if still tied, then:
Highest total team points from the three best places; if still tied, then:
Highest total segment scores of the current segment of the three best places according to team points
If still tied, then a tie will actually happen and all tied teams qualify for the final