In the seven previous World Team Trophies, six of the team titles have gone to either host country Japan or the United States. And this week’s World Team Trophy is going to be exactly that battle. In fact, the placements look to be two-team head-to-heads, with third looking to be between Canada and South Korea, and fifth between France and Italy. For folks who have watched the Team Event at the Olympics, there are a number of differences that makes WTT much different in scoring, and so if you’re doing the calcs at home, it’s important to understand some of the big differences before you watch the competition this week.
2023 World Team Trophy predictions
Official hashtags: #WTTFigure #国別対抗戦
Keys to victory
There are a few very specific things about how World Team Trophy is scored that change the way that the scoring leans. A few notes for viewers that may change the way you root for your favorite team(s):
Team scores are based on placements - Each team's total score is based on placements (in singles, 12 points for 1st through 1 point for 12th; in pairs/dance, 12 points for 1st through 7 points for 6th), so it doesn't matter how large your margin of victory is; it only matters that you finish ahead of other skaters.
Short and free are separate - There is no combined total for skaters, so if a skater/team bombs one program, he/she/they can still contribute greatly to the team score in the other program.
Pairs/dance provide a different dynamic - You'll notice that there are six pairs and six dance teams, as opposed to 12 men and 12 women. Why is that important? Well, the scoring is that the pairs and dance teams finishing lowest still get SEVEN points, whereas the single skaters who finish lowest only get ONE point. Teams with lower potential in pairs and dance have less of a points disadvantage than teams with lower potential in singles.
Team predictions
1. Team United States
2. Team Japan
3. Team South Korea
4. Team Canada
5. Team Italy
6. Team France
WOMEN
If Team Japan is to pull out the victory here, it is absolutely important for them to go 1-2 in the women’s event, because this is where their biggest strength is. Kaori Sakamoto and Mai Mihara have been on the podium at most of their competitions this season, but Mihara will want to clean up what she did at Worlds.
The competition among the top 5 or 6 could be close—and this is also where Team USA and Team South Korea will have some pivotal placements. South Korea’s strength is also with the women, with Yelim Kim, who can really be a contender when she’s on, and new World silver medalist Haein Lee. Kim and Lee doing well, or maybe even pulling off some surprises, could do wonders for their shot at third place in South Korea’s debut at WTT. For the US, Isabeau Levito’s placement will play a big role in how well they can withstand the pressure from Japan.
PAIRS
For the pairs, the top four from Worlds are back for another go. The past two World champions, Riku Miura/Ryuichi Kihara and Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier will set the stage for that fight for the WTT title. Miura/Kihara winning both segments is crucial for their chances at the title, whereas Knierim/Frazier getting first in either one can make Team USA’s path to victory a whole lot smoother.
In the fight for team bronze, Deanna Stellato-Dudek/Maxime Deschamps will be looking for at least third in both segments; if they can pull off an upset and get themselves in the top two in either segment, that would really boost Canada’s chances for third. Given how new their pairing is, Hye-jin Cho/Steven Adcock will likely not figure into the picture here, but this is where the scoring quirks of World Team Trophy help a team like Korea tremendously.
DANCE
In ice dance, newly-crowned World champions Madison Chock/Evan Bates look to sweep the two segments, but just as with Japan for the women, it is crucial for them to win both segments for the US because this is where their biggest points strength is. But it won’t be easy, given that the rest of the podium is also here—ice dance could be the discipline where a couple of unexpected placements may shake up the final standings. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier and Kana Muramoto/Daisuke Takahashi will be eying their best spots for their team standings.
MEN
This is where the biggest shakeups could be, because the men’s field is the deepest of the four, and as we’ve seen in recent years, it’s also where the most unpredictability could happen. Team Japan chances at the top spot changed quite a bit when Shoma Uno announced his withdrawal earlier in the week. In his place, Shun Sato will try to repeat some of the big skating we’ve seen from him late this season. If he and Kazuki Tomono can put down performances that we know they can, then Japan’s path to the win becomes much clearer.
For the US, Ilia Malinin and Jason Brown will need to fend off some very talented competition and put themselves in the top three or top four to keep the US in a good spot. But perhaps the fight for team bronze gets very heated here, because the relative placements of Junhwan Cha and Keegan Messing will go a long way to determining if Canada or South Korea gets on the podium. But there are so many guys here who could play the spoiler role—it’s going to be the discipline to be on pins and needles for.