If you think the singles disciplines were unpredictable, wait until you take a look at the pairs’ field at the 2024 US Figure Skating Championships. When last season ended, it seemed like Emily Chan/Spencer Howe would be capitalizing on their top five finish at Worlds to become the top American pair this season, but injury has kept them out of the whole season. And while that happened, a bunch of new pairs sprung up, and things look a lot different now than they did a year ago this time. There are literally six pairs who could end up on the podium.
US Nationals predictions
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GOLD Katie McBeath/Daniil Parkman - First time’s the charm? Admittedly, this prediction is based very much on the side-by-sides. McBeath/Parkman won the US Pairs Final on their way to their first Nationals together. If you are wondering why Parkman’s name is familiar, it’s because he’s been skating with Anastasiia Metelkina that past three seasons (incidentally, Metelkina just won silver with Luka Berulava at Europeans). Just as the Metelkina/Berulava pairing worked better than their previous pairings, the McBeath/Parkman pairing feels similar. In a pairs event where the top six could be very evenly matched, the side-by-sides could make the difference.
SILVER Chelsea Liu/Balazs Nagy - Speaking of new pairings, Liu/Nagy have made a splash this season, particularly with their bronze at Skate America. Their basics are strong, but their side-by-sides and throws can be variable. Their free skate is much more of a gauntlet for them as a result. So they will absolutely need to rely on a strong short program to give them some kind of cushion and take the pressure off the free skate.
BRONZE Emily Chan/Spencer Howe - On paper, Chan/Howe are the most experienced and the most accomplished of this group. And if they had a normal season so far, it wouldn’t have been a surprise for them to have been the favorites for the title. But Howe’s shoulder surgery and the subsequent recovery period threw things into limbo, and Nationals is the first time we are seeing this season. Lifts could be a challenge, and like Liu/Nagy, they will need to figure out those throws and side-by-sides.
4. Alisa Efimova/Misha Mitrofanov - You’re now thinking, wait, Alisa Efimova? Yup, just like Parkman, Efimova has made the jump to the US to pair up with Mitrofanov. The overall pairs experience is there for these two, but the name of the game here again are the side-by-sides. They were second behind McBeath/Parkman at the US Pairs Final.
5. Ellie Kam/Danny O’Shea - For the reigning bronze medalists, it’s been a trying sophomore season. Mid-season injuries seemed to have derailed their progress, and they come in without the confidence that they perhaps had this time last year. The throws are their biggest obstacle, so if they can’t figure out their side-by-sides, it really spells a lot of trouble for them.
6. Valentina Plazas/Maximiliano Fermandez - Fifth last year, Plazas/Fernandez probably has the most inconsistent set of side-by-sides out of this top six. But they also have some of the most spectacular lifts of the bunch. They figure into the medals if they can rotate those jumps and keep their throws in check.
7. Isabelle Martins/Ryan Bedard - The former US junior silver medalists are in their first senior Nationals together. They were a solid fifth at Skate America earlier this season.