The men’s event at each of the Grand Prix events so far this season has been on a scale of unpredictable to chaotic, culminating in a truly head-scratching competition last week in France, and we should probably expect some more of the same this week at NHK Trophy. On paper, it seems like Yuma Kagiyama and Kao Miura should be favored for the top spots, but what happens after that is probably just anyone’s guess.
NHK Trophy predictions
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GOLD Yuma Kagiyama JPN - The last of the reigning World medalists to make his first Grand Prix appearance this season, Kagiyama delivered a solid competition at Lombardia Trophy to finish behind Ilia Malinin there. He’s had another six weeks since that event to train, so expect him to be a heavy favorite here at his home Grand Prix.
SILVER Kao Miura JPN - Nursing a nagging injury this season, Miura looked completely out of sorts early in the week at Skate America but pulled it together for a bronze medal finish there. With another few weeks of recovery, he may be in a better physical spot this week. He was also at that Lombardia event with Kagiyama and Malinin and finished fourth there, but that was where the injury flare-up happened, so the Skate America improvements were a promising step forward.
BRONZE Daniel Grassl ITA - There is general mystery around Grassl and his absence from last season’s competitions. And though there were reports that the Italian anti-doping agency asked for a two-year suspension after he missed three doping tests, but full details are still murky. He is, in fact, back this season and has had solid competition results, including a win at Nepela Memorial two weeks ago.
4. Matteo Rizzo ITA - After having surgery following Europeans last season, Rizzo has been making his way back into competition shape. He won Budapest Trophy last month, and looks to have comfortably gotten all of his triples back to form. He attempted quad loop in both programs there, but not quad toe, so we will see how much more he’s been able to get back since October.
5. Andrew Torgashev USA - To say last week’s bronze at Grand Prix de France was a surprise would be an understatement, and in fact, Torgashev was literally a validated spin away from taking silver there. He wasn’t even supposed to be on the Grand Prix again this season, but ended up getting the last minute slot after Stephen Gogolev withdrew earlier this week. He looked generally very solid last week, and he could carry that momentum and muscle memory here this week.
6. Jason Brown USA - It was clear at Skate America that Brown was still in preparation mode, as he took eighth there (incidentally, his lowest career placement at a Grand Prix event). This week is about progress for him, which includes rotation of his triple axel and his free skate conditioning. At his best, he’s podium material, but he will probably be somewhere in between here at NHK.
7. Tatsuya Tsuboi JPN - We haven’t seen Tsuboi internationally since early this season (some would even say off-season) when he took fifth at Asian Trophy. His win at Regionals in late September was a much better reflection of his skating.
8. Gabriele Frangipani ITA - After a shaky short program at Skate Canada, he pulled up from tenth to finish sixth overall there. But the general percentages he was hitting on his big jumps were just not there, which showed in competition. If he can repeat what he did at Nebelhorn, where he won silver, he’s got a chance at the podium.
9. Vladimir Litvintsev AZE - Fifth at Skate Canada two weeks ago, Litvintsev was hit or miss both in practice and in the free skate. We’ve seen him skate stronger this season, particularly when he won silver at Denis Ten Memorial.
10. Mark Gorodnitsky ISR - Seventh at Nebelhorn Trophy and then tenth at Skate Canada, Gorodnitsky will hope to clean up some of those technical issues he had at those events.
11. Tomoki Hiwatashi USA - You really never know what you’ll get with Hiwatashi; and that’s what we saw at Cranberry Cup in August, where he hit a solid short and then took four falls in the free. That was an early-season event, so we will see how his training has improved his readiness this week.
12. Juheon Lim KOR - Lim is making his full senior debut this season after straddling juniors and seniors last year. He had some very promising results there, including a win at last year’s Denis Ten Memorial in his senior international debut. He was eighth at Lombardia Trophy in September.