2018 Grand Prix Final qualifiers and substitutes
MEN
WD. Yuzuru Hanyu JPN - 30 (FIN 15, RUS 15)
Q2. Shoma Uno JPN - 30 (CAN 15, JPN 15)
Q3. Nathan Chen USA - 30 (USA 15, FRA 15)
Q4. Michal Brezina CZE - 26 (USA 13, FIN 13)
Q5. Sergei Voronov RUS - 24 (USA 11, JPN 13)
Q6. Junhwan Cha KOR - 22 (CAN 11, FIN 11)
Q7. Keegan Messing CAN - 20 (CAN 13, RUS 7)
—
S2. Alexander Samarin RUS - 20 (CAN 9, FRA 11)
S3. Matteo Rizzo ITA - 20 (USA 9, JPN 11)
DANCE
Q1. Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue USA - 30 (USA 15, CAN 15)
Q2. Alexandra Stepanova/Ivan Bukin RUS - 30 (FIN 15, RUS 15)
Q3. Victoria Sinitsina/Nikita Katsalapov RUS - 26 (CAN 13, FRA 13)
Q4. Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri ITA - 26 (USA 13, FIN 13)
Q5. Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker USA - 24 (JPN 15, FRA 9)
Q6. Tiffani Zagorski/Jonathan Guerreiro RUS - 24 (USA 11, FRA 13)
—
S1. Sara Hurtado/Kirill Khaliavin ESP - 22 (FIN 9, RUS 13)
S2. Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier CAN - 22 (CAN 11, FRA 11)
S3. Lorraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter USA - 20 (USA 9, FIN 11)
LADIES
Q1. Alina Zagitova RUS - 30 (FIN 15, RUS 15)
Q2. Rika Kihira JPN - 30 (JPN 15, FRA 15)
Q3. Satoko Miyahara JPN - 28 (USA 15, JPN 13)
Q4. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS - 26 (CAN 15, JPN 11)
Q5. Kaori Sakamoto JPN - 24 (USA 13, FIN 11)
Q6. Sofia Samodurova RUS - 24 (USA 11, RUS 13)
—
S1. Mai Mihara JPN - 22 (JPN 9, FRA 13)
S2. Stanislava Konstantinova RUS - 20 (FIN 13, FRA 7)
S3. Evgenia Medvedeva RUS - 20 (CAN 11, FRA 9)
PAIRS
Q1. Vanessa James/Morgan Cipres FRA - 30 (CAN 15, FRA 15)
Q2. Evgenia Tarasova/Vladimir Morozov RUS - 30 (USA 15, RUS 15)
Q3. Natalia Zabiiako/Alexander Enbert RUS - 30 (FIN 15, JPN 15)
Q4. Cheng Peng/Yang Jin CHN - 26 (CAN 13, JPN 13)
Q5. Nicole Della Monica/Matteo Guarise ITA - 26 (FIN 13, RUS 13)
Q6. Daria Pavliuchenko/Denis Khodykin RUS - 22 (FIN 11, RUS 11)
—
S1. Alisa Efimova/Alexander Korovin RUS - 20 (USA 13, RUS 7)
S2. Tarah Kayne/Danny O’Shea USA - 20 (JPN 7, FRA 13)
S3. Kirsten Moore-Towers/Michael Marinaro CAN - 20 (CAN 11, JPN 9)
After five Grand Prix events, we are down to the final competition before the Grand Prix Final. Internationaux de France will be a nailbiter for the skaters who have finished their events and are on the bubble, and the skaters who still have a chance to qualify … and their respective fans. After some number crunching, here are the standings, the scenarios for qualification, and my take at their chances to qualify.
Caution: LOTS OF NUMBERS AND WORDS ahead
LADIES (after Rostelecom)
Q1. Alina Zagitova RUS - 30 (FIN 15, RUS 15)
Q2. Satoko Miyahara JPN - 28 (USA 15, JPN 13)
Q3. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva RUS - 26 (CAN 15, JPN 11)
4. Kaori Sakamoto JPN - 24 (USA 13, FIN 11)
5. Sofia Samodurova RUS - 24 (USA 11, RUS 13)
6. Mako Yamashita JPN - 17 (CAN 13, RUS 4)
— Still with a shot at qualifying —
Rika Kihira JPN - 15 (JPN 15, FRA ??)
Stanislava Konstantinova RUS - 13 (FIN 13, FRA ??)
Evgenia Medvedeva RUS - 11 (CAN 11, FRA ??)
Mai Mihara JPN - 9 (JPN 9, FRA ??)
Bradie Tennell USA - 9 (USA 9, FRA ??)
Alexia Paganini SUI - 9 (RUS 9, FRA ??)
Laurine Lecavelier FRA - 7 (USA 7, FRA ??)
Rika Kihira (chances: high)
With a win coming in, Kihira has the best shot of any to qualify - fourth palce or higher guarantees it
She also qualifies if she is 8th or higher and all of the following happens: Konstantinova 6th or lower, Medvedeva 5th or lower, Mihara/Tennell/Paganini 4th or lower, Lecavelier 3rd or lower
Evgenia Medvedeva (chances: medium to high)
Medvedeva’s chances of qualifying are really dependent on how herself she is in France this week. Even at her 80% best, it shouldn’t be a tough sell.
She will qualify if she wins; if she is 2nd, she qualifies if at most two of these happen:
Kihira 4th or higher
Konstantinova or Mihara or Tennell 1st
Lose tiebreak to Sakamoto
Lose tiebreak to Samodurova
Kaori Sakamoto (chances: medium)
Sakamoto is right on the bubble, and will very much be depending on how the podium shakes out this week. How Konstantinova and Medvedeva look this week will be most crucial to her chances at the Final
She qualifies if at most two of these happen:
Kihira 4th or higher,
Konstantinova 3rd with IdF score >213.75
Konstantinova 1st or 2nd
Medvedeva 2nd with IdF score >213.41
Medevedeva or Mihara or Tennell 1st
Stanislava Konstantinova (chances: medium):
After a silver in Helsinki, Konstantinova will need to skate very similarly to qualify
She qualifies with 1st or 2nd with any score, or 3rd and at most two of these happen:
Kihira 4th or higher
Medvedeva 2nd or higher
Mihara or Tennell 1st
Lose tiebreak to Sakamoto
Lose tiebreak to Samodurova
There are also a few other very low probability scenarios if she is 4th to 7th
Sofia Samodurova (chances: low)
Samodurova is tied with Sakamoto but lost the tiebreak due to lower total combined scores. Because of that, it will take a whole lot for her to make it to the Final.
She qualifies if at most one of these happens
Kihira 4th or higher
Konstantinova 3rd with IdF score >199.14
Konstantinova 1st or 2nd
Medvedeva 2nd with IdF score >198.80
Medvedeva or Mihara or Tennell 1st
Mai Mihara / Bradie Tennell / Alexia Paganini (chances: very low to medium)
Each skater makes it with 1st with any score
There are a few other low probability scenarios if they are 2nd to 4th
Mako Yamashita (chances: astronomically low)
Qualifies if none of these happen (Kihira 8th or higher with any score, Konstantinova 7th with IdF score >166.71, Konstantinova 6th or higher, Medvedeva 5th or higher, Mihara/Tennell/Paganini 4th or higher, Lecavelier 3rd or higher)
Laurine Lecavelier (chances: astronomically low)
Basically slim to none, Lecavelier makes it if she wins and none of these happen: Kihira 4th or higher, Kihira 5th with tiebreak, Konstantinova 2nd or higher
There are a few other very low probability scenarios if 2nd or 3rd
MEN (after Rostelecom)
Q1. Yuzuru Hanyu JPN - 30 (FIN 15, RUS 15)
Q2. Shoma Uno JPN - 30 (CAN 15, JPN 15)
Q3. Michal Brezina CZE - 26 (USA 13, FIN 13)
Q4. Sergei Voronov RUS - 24 (USA 11, JPN 13)
5. Junhwan Cha KOR - 22 (CAN 11, FIN 11)
6. Keegan Messing CAN - 20 (CAN 13, RUS 7)
— Still with a shot at qualifying —
Nathan Chen USA - 15 (USA 15, FRA ??)
Alexander Samarin RUS - 9 (CAN 9, FRA ??)
Boyang Jin CHN - 7 (FIN 7, FRA ??)
Dmitri Aliev RUS - 7 (JPN 7, FRA ??)
Jason Brown USA - 5 (CAN 5, FRA ??)
As far as scenarios are concerned, the men’s scenarios, with just two spots left to fight for, are a bit less complicated that the women’s scenarios were. Of course, the wildcard is how Yuzuru Hanyu’s injury at Rostelecom Cup affects his entry to the Final. These scenarios assume that Hanyu will skate in Vancouver.
Nathan Chen (chances: very high)
With a win and not terribly deep field in France, Chen’s chances to qualify for his third consecutive Final and defend his title are very high
He qualifies by finishing 5th or higher, or 6th and none of these happen: Samarin 1st or 2nd, Jin or Aliev 1st, Brown 1st with tiebreak
Junhwan Cha (chances: medium):
After everything was said and done, Cha’s two bronze medals gave him a fighting shot at the Final
He qualifies if at most one of these happens: Chen 5th or higher, Samarin 1st or 2nd, Jin or Aliev 1st
Alexander Samarin (chances: low to medium)
With a fourth at Skate Canada, Samarin has a look at the Final, but he will need to be consistent in France and will need others to make more errors than he does
He qualifies with a win, or 2nd and at most one of these happens: Jin or Aliev 1st, Chen 5th or higher
Boyang Jin and Dmitri Aliev (chances: very low to low)
Qualifies with win with any score
Qualifies if 2nd and none of these happen: Chen 6th or higher, Samarin 1st
Keegan Messing (chances: very low)
Qualifies if none of these happen: Chen 6th or higher, Samarin 1st or 2nd, Jin or Aliev 1st or 2nd, Jin 3rd with IdF score >258.64, Aliev 3rd with IdF score >266.40, Brown 1st
Jason Brown (chances: astronomically low)
Qualifies with a win and none of these happen: Chen 5th or higher, Chen 6th with tiebreak, Samarin 1st or 2nd
PAIRS (after Rostelecom)
Q1. Evgenia Tarasova/Vladimir Morozov RUS - 30 (USA 15, RUS 15)
Q2. Natalia Zabiiako/Alexander Enbert RUS - 30 (FIN 15, JPN 15)
Q3. Cheng Peng/Yang Jin CHN - 26 (CAN 13, JPN 13)
Q4. Nicole Della Monica/Matteo Guarise ITA - 26 (FIN 13, RUS 13)
5. Daria Pavliuchenko/Denis Khodykin RUS - 22 (FIN 11, RUS 11)
6. Alisa Efimova/Alexander Korovin RUS - 20 (USA 13, RUS 7)
— Still with a shot at qualifying —
Vanessa James/Morgan Cipres FRA - 15 (CAN 15, FRA ??)
Aleksandra Boikova/Dmitrii Kozlovskii RUS - 9 (CAN 9, FRA ??)
Tae Ok Ryom/Ju Sik Kim PRK - 7 (FIN 7, FRA ??)
Tarah Kayne/Danny O’Shea USA - 7 (JPN 7, FRA ??)
Minerva Fabienne Hase/Nolan Seegert GER - 7 (USA 7, FRA ??)
James/Cipres (chances: very high)
With seven pairs in France and a win coming in, James/Cipres could make multiple errors and still make it to the Final
They qualify with 5th or higher, or 6th and Boikova/Kozlovskii 3rd or lower and R/K, K/O, H/S 2nd or lower
Boikova/Kozlovskii (chances: medium)
With the ups and downs on the Grand Prix, it turns out that Boikova/Kozlovskii will really have a good look at the Final
They qualify with a win, or 2nd with any score and at most one of the following happens: James/Cipres 5th or higher, R/K or K/O or H/S 1st AND James/Cipres 3rd to 5th
Pavliuchenko/Khodykin (chances: medium)
Like Boikova/Kozlovskii, Pavliuchenko/Khodykin have a good look and will depend on how their teammates do
They qualify if at most one of these happens: James/Cipres are 5th or higher, Boikova/Kozlovskii are 2nd or higher, R/K or K/O or H/S are 1st
Efimova/Korovin (chances: very low):
They only qualify if none of these happen: James/Cipres are 6th or higher, Boikova/Kozlovskii are 2nd or higher, R/K or K/O or H/S 2nd or higher with total combined scores >360.60
Ryom/Kim / Kayne/O’Shea / Hase/Seegert (chances: very low)
Any of them will make it to the Final with a win, but that’s a tall task considering James/Cipres are in the competition
If anyone of them are second, they qualify if James/Cipres are 7th AND the other two pairs in this group don’t win
DANCE (after Rostelecom)
Q1. Madison Hubbell/Zachary Donohue USA - 30 (USA 15, CAN 15)
Q2. Alexandra Stepanova/Ivan Bukin RUS - 30 (FIN 15, RUS 15)
Q3. Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri ITA - 26 (USA 13, FIN 13)
4. Tiffani Zagorski/Jonathan Guerreiro RUS - 24 (USA 11, FRA 13)
5. Sara Hurtado/Kirill Khaliavin ESP - 22 (FIN 9, RUS 13)
6. Lorraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter USA - 20 (USA 9, FIN 11)
— Still with a shot at qualifying —
Kaitlin Hawayek/Jean-Luc Baker USA - 15 (JPN 15, FRA ??)
Victoria Sinitsina/Nikita Katsalapov RUS - 13 (CAN 13, FRA ??)
Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier CAN - 11 (CAN 11, FRA ??)
Rachel Parsons/Michael Parsons USA - 11 (JPN 11, FRA ??)
Marie-Jade Lauriault/Romain Le Gac FRA - 9 (CAN 9, FRA ??)
Olivia Smart/Adrian Diaz ESP - 7 (CAN 7, FRA ??)
Allison Reed/Saulius Ambrulevicius LTU - 5 (RUS 5, FRA ??)
With three spots left for ice dance, the scenarios here are a bit complex, and even moreso complicated by the presence of Gabriella Papadakis/Guillaume Cizeron, who withdrew from their first Grand Prix with Cizeron’s back injury and won’t figure in to the GP Final conversation. But their presence can derail the qualification hopes for the teams this week in France.
Hawayek/Baker (chances: high)
Their surprise win at NHK Trophy in the absence of Papadakis/Cizeron and over Zagorski/Guerreiro set them up very well for a first-ever Final berth, a fourth-place finish will guarantee them a spot. That said, in this field, it may not even be a given.
If they are 5th, they qualify if at most two of these happens
Sinitsina/Katsalapov are 3rd or higher
Gilles/Poirier are 2nd or higher
Parsons/Parsons are 2nd or higher
Lauriault/Le Gac are 1st
Smart/Diaz are 1st with the tiebreak
They can also qualify with a 6th but with very low probability scenarios
Sinitsina/Katsalapov (chances: high)
With Papadakis/Cizeron in the field, Sinitsina/Katsalapov are likely favored for silver (alongside Gilles/Poirier) - silver would guarantee them a spot in the Final
If they are 3rd, they qualify if at most two of these happen
Lose to Zagorski/Guerreiro on tiebreak
Hawayek/Baker are 4th or higher
Gilles/Poirier or Parsons/Parsons or Lauriault/Le Gac are 1st
Gilles/Poirier or Parsons/Parsons are 2nd with the tiebreak
They can also qualify with a 4th but with very low probability scenarios
Zagorski/Guerreiro (chances: medium to high)
None of this would’ve been a thing had Zagorski/Guerreiro won NHK, but with a silver there, they are now on the bubble
They qualify if at most two of these happen
Hawayek/Baker are 4th or higher
Sinitsina/Katsalapov are 1st or 2nd
Sinitsina/Katsalapov are 3rd with IdF score >169.26
Gilles/Poirier or Parsons/Parsons or Lauriault/Le Gac are 1st
Gilles/Poirier are 2nd with IdF score >177.46
Parsons/Parsons are 2nd with IdF score >185.79
Gilles/Poirier (chances: medium to high)
Gilles/Poirier will have to pull out all the stops to figure their way into the Final. Partly due to their errant rhythm dance at Skate Canada, they dug themselves into a hole with both their placement and their tiebreaker score.
They qualify automatically with a win
They can qualify with a 2nd if at most two of these happen
Lose to Zagorski/Guerreiro on tiebreak
Hawayek/Baker are 4th or higher
Sinitsina/Katsalapov or Parsons/Parsons or Lauriault/Le Gac are 1st
Sinitsina/Katsalapov are 3rd with the tiebreak
They can also qualify with a 3rd but with very low probability scenarios
Hurtado/Khaliavin (chances: low):
They qualify if at most one of these happens
Hawayek/Baker are 5th or higher
Sinitsina/Katsalapov are 3rd or higher
Sinitsina/Katsalapov are 4th with IdF score >151.34
Gilles/Poirier or Parsons/Parsons are 1st or 2nd
Lauriault/Le Gac are 1st
Lauriault/Le Gac are 2nd with IdF score >167.87
Parsons/Parsons (chances: low):
Even though their scenarios look exactly like those of Gilles/Poirier, it will be much more difficult for Parsons/Parsons to qualify merely due to their overall disadvantage within the depth of this field
They qualify with a win, or if they are second 2nd, they qualify if at most two of these happen: lose to Guignard/Fabbri on tiebreak, Hawayek/Baker 4th or higher, Sinitsina/Katsalapov or Gilles/Poirier or Lauriault/Le Gac are 1st, Sinitsina/Katsalapov 3rd with the tiebreak. They have very low probability scenarios with a 3rd
McNamara/Carpenter (chances: very low)
McNamara/Carpenter qualify only if none of these happen
Hawayek/Baker are 6th or higher
Sinitsina/Katsalapov are 5th or higher
Gilles/Poirier or Parsosn/Persons are 3rd or higher
Gilles/Poirier are 4th or higher with IdF score >170.26
Parsons/Parsons are 4th or higher with IdF score >178.59
Lauriault/Le Gac are 1st or 2nd
Lauriault/Le Gac are 3rd with IdF score >176.91
Smart/Diaz or Reed/Ambrulevicius are 1st
Lauriault/Le Gac (chances: astronomically low)
They qualify with a win, or in other standings with scenarios with very low probability
Smart/Diaz and Reed/Ambrulevicius (astronomically low)
They qualify with a 1st but alongside very low probability scenarios