It’s not at all a surprise that there are three skaters in the ladies’ event this week who would be considered favorites at NHK Trophy. All three of them have won Grand Prix events before, and all three of them will make it to the Final if they get on the podium as expected (in fact, there are plenty of other scenarios by which they can get to Torino in two weeks.
NHK Trophy predictions
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GOLD Alena Kostornaia RUS - Undefeated so far this season in her senior debut, Kostornaia has impressed with both her terrific skating and her triple axels. Of the three favorites, she is the one that brings the combination of technical difficulty, components excellence, and general consistency. There’s nothing guaranteed about this second Grand Prix title, so this showdown is shaping up to be the biggest anticipated highlight of the entire event. Perhaps the biggest key for her this week - besides being as clean as possible - will be how her components are scored, especially relative to Zagitova.
SILVER Rika Kihira JPN - Like Kostornaia, Kihira brings the triple axel to the table. Her season hasn’t been perfect, as she’s been dealing with a nagging injury since the off-season, which has made her take out the triple lutz from her programs. After a silver at Skate Canada behind Trusova, she will be facing off with another Russian phenom as well as the Olympic champion. For Kihira, her path to defending her title will be for her to be clean in her performances and feed off the home crowd.
BRONZE Alina Zagitova RUS - Similar to last season, Zagitova has started her season with some issues with her lutz. But different from last season, she has started her season not looking like she has the weight of Olympic champion pressure on her shoulders. It’s allowed her to skate more freely so far. But it’s precisely those issues right now that make her most vulnerable out of the three favorites. She took silver at Internationaux de France three weeks ago.
4. Eunsoo Lim KOR - It’s been a decent season so far for Lim, but she hasn’t looked quite like she’s got competition confidence yet. At Skate America, her practices looked a lot stronger than what she put out at the actual event. But still, she showed glimpses of her potential with a fifth-place finish. It will be tough for her to figure into the medals, but of the skaters here outside the top three, she’s got the best chance at standing out for that fourth-place finish.
5. Yuhana Yokoi JPN - As I noted last week, Yokoi is no stranger to free skate comebacks. And like clockwork, that was exactly what happened at Rostelecom Cup last weekend. After finishing tenth with a poor short program, she came back with a very strong free skate to pull up to sixth place. And perhaps, just perhaps, she could figure out a way to put together two good skates for a top five finish at home.
6. Sofia Samodurova RUS - After a bit of a slower start this season, Samodurova found some of the consistency that put her on the map last season, taking fifth at Cup of China two weeks ago. Underrotations were her issue there, and she will need to clean those up for her to figure into the top. Can she rediscover the spark from last season here?
7. Starr Andrews USA - Fifth at Internationaux de France, Andrews has put down some fine short programs so far this season. Her technical base is a good bit lower than that of the rest of the top skaters here, and that is the thing that will keep her from the top half.
8. Mae Berenice Meite FRA - After another knee injury that kept her from full training in the off-season, Meite is finally healthy again. But she’s trying to figure out how she converts the progress she’s made on practice ice into consistency on competition ice.
9. Karen Chen USA - The new college student has been balancing being a Cornell freshman and being a world class figure skater - but being a college freshman also usually means dealing with being sick a lot. She was under the weather at Skate America, where she was eighth.
10. Kailani Craine AUS - Underrotations were the culprit a couple weeks ago when Craine finished tenth at Cup of China. But after starting the season without a Grand Prix assignment, she will be excited to be in her second GP this week.
11. Mako Yamashita JPN - It’s been a tough season for Yamashita so far, especially on the heels of a solid first senior international season last year. She was 12th at Skate America.
12. Megan Wessenberg USA - Like Chen, Wessenberg is also balancing skating and college. Her season has been less than stellar so far, most recently with an eighth-place finish at Finlandia Trophy.