Of the four disciplines here this week at NHK Trophy, the men’s event is probably the one in which the Grand Prix Final qualification is most intriguing. One person who doesn’t have much to worry about is Yuzuru Hanyu, who is the class of the field here and will qualify easily. But provided that he’s a lock, there are still three spots left to be taken. We will most certainly see one first-time qualifier out of this field; will there be more than one?
NHK Trophy predictions
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GOLD Yuzuru Hanyu JPN - He’s been healthy and injury-free this season so far, which is a far cry from what we saw the past two years. This week’s NHK Trophy is less of a competition for him and more of a warmup for his showdown with Nathan Chen at the Grand Prix Final. He and Chen have just been far and away the two best skaters on the men’s field, blowing away the competition in the events they’ve competed in. This week should be no different - Hanyu will skate away with his fourth NHK Trophy title.
SILVER Kevin Aymoz FRA - It was tears for Aymoz as he found himself on the Grand Prix podium for the very first time a few weeks back at home. And it may very well be tears for him again this week if he can put together a good competition to make it all the way onto the roster for the Final. If he skates the way that he can, he’s got the technical goods and the components prowess to finish on the podium again - but as we saw in France, he needs to keep up his focus and not make mistakes on the easier elements.
BRONZE Jason Brown USA - His silver at Skate America was a bit unexpected, especially considering the relative disappointment of his short program there. But the stars aligned for Brown to put himself into Grand Prix Final contention even with skating that wasn’t up to par for him. It’s now been a month since Skate America, which means more time for him to brush up on his training and more time removed from the concussion that he suffered in a car accident over the summer. He’s got a great shot at returning to the Final.
4. Sota Yamamoto JPN - This feels like Yamamoto’s season to have a breakthrough. He already made some waves earlier in the year with two silvers on the Challengers, most notably winning the short program over Shoma Uno at Finlandia. And though he had a disastrous free skate there, he’s shown that he is more than capable of putting together strong - and technically upgraded - programs. If there’s anyone who might throw a wrench into the Grand Prix Final scenarios, it’s this guy.
5. Makar Ignatov RUS - He was the big surprise last week at Rostelecom Cup. Whatever you make of his components or his final standing at that event, there’s no doubt that Ignatov has begun to make a name for himself this season with a win at Nebelhorn Trophy and then bronze at his Grand Prix debut last week. There’s a lot to like about how he has delivered so far in his first full senior season.
6. Tomoki Hiwatashi USA - Who knows if it was a fluke or nerves in his first Grand Prix, but Hiwatashi has an awful short program in France, only to skate strongly in the free skate to move from tenth to finish fifth. If he can put together two good programs here, he could very well challenge for that top five again - and that will be especially important with US Nationals coming up in two months.
7. Sergei Voronov RUS - This season hasn’t been quite the same for Voronov as the past two have - remember that he ended up at the Grand Prix Final each of the past two seasons. He was sixth at Internationaux de France with respectable but not spectacular performances. Might he be trying to peak later in the season so that he can make a better case for himself at Russian Nationals? His trajectory has been in the positive direction since the beginning of the season.
8. Koshiro Shimada JPN - Skating in his home Grand Prix for the first time, Shimada is coming off a tenth-place Grand Prix debut at Skate America. There is a lot to like about his skating, and if he can find his quad toe this week, he’s very much positioned for a top half finish.
9. Roman Sadovsky CAN - I was very bullish on Sadovsky a few weeks ago at Skate Canada, and while he has a whole lot of potential - between his technical ability and his strong basics - his inconsistency really changes how you view his chances in competition. He was tenth at Skate Canada, but he could very well be fighting for the podium here at NHK.
10. Conrad Orzel CAN - The former Canadian junior silver medalist had a promising start at Autumn Classic with a sixth-place finish, but then was shaky in his Grand Prix debut at Cup of China, finishing 11th.
11. Alexei Bychenko ISR - He just hasn’t been the same in consistency since his injury early last season. After a seventh at Skate America to start his Grand Prix series this season, he was most recently fourth and under 200 points at Asian Open earlier this month.
12. Anton Shulepov RUS - 11th at Internationaux de France three weeks ago, Shulepov did not look competition-ready quite yet in his Grand Prix debut. He will get a chance to redeem himself with a couple more weeks of training under his belt.