There has never been a one-country sweep in the ladies’ event at the Grand Prix Final. And the chances of that happening has never been higher - three Russian women have absolutely dominated this season, and all three of them were just at the Junior Grand Prix Final this time last year. The domination has come with huge technical content. In fact, of the six skaters here this week, four of them will be planning triple axels and/or quads. The unexpectedness may come from potential upgrades we’ve heard about this season - and if those upgrades do happen, they may throw a wrench into the whole picture.
Grand Prix Final predictions
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GOLD Alena Kostornaia RUS - Last year’s somewhat-surprise Junior Grand Prix Final champion may very well be this year’s somewhat-surprise Grand Prix Final champion. The surprise comes because she does not have a quad (she has a triple axel - three in two programs, in fact), but where she will have an advantage will be in the short program. She can very well build up a 10+ point lead with her triple axel to buffer her score against the quads that Trusova and Shcherbakova have. And in addition to that, she is absolutely the most complete skater here. If everything is scored right with the quality of basics as they stand today, two clean programs from Kostornaia without a quad beats two clean programs from Trusova with four quads any day.
SILVER Alexandra Trusova RUS - If there’s anything we’ve learned about Trusova this season, it’s that her big jumps are even stronger this season. Her issue has been with the quad sal, which she’s brought back this season but is by far her least consistent quad. But, but, but (!!!) one of these potential upgrades comes from Trusova, who has recently been landing triple axels in practice. If she has somehow added a consistent axel to her repertoire, she can close that short program gap that Kostornaia and Kihira would build up. That’s a big if, but we will see where it all goes this week.
BRONZE Anna Shcherbakova RUS - Lest we forget, Shcherbakova is the reigning Russian champion, being Kostornaia and Trusova last year not long after a disappointing Junior Grand Prix Final appearance last year. She’s got a quad lutz in hand, but the quality and execution of her jumps aren’t quite as strong as that of someone like Zagitova or Kihira or Kostornaia.
4. Rika Kihira JPN - The other potential upgrade is here. Kihira has been teasing the quad salchow since the off-season, but a nagging ankle issue has kept her from putting the triple lutz into her programs for much of the season, and it’s also kept her from going for the quad in competition. This might be the opportunity for her, and she knows she will need to find another gear in order to keep up with the rest of the Russians. It’s not even so much about defending her title as it is about trying to get back onto the podium. The axel will help open a gap, but she will need more to keep others from overtaking.
5. Alina Zagitova RUS - The lutz issues have come back to Zagitova this season. And without the harder technical elements, she will need to utilize every bit of the content that she does have in order to have a chance at the podium. A fully-clean Zagitova could very well beat a fully-clean Shcherbakova, but execution will need to be seamless and flawless. How she fares this week will be most important for her chances at Russian Nationals (and the rest of the season) in a few weeks.
6. Bradie Tennell USA - It’s been an up-and-down season for Tennell, who battled an injury over the off-season that kept her from training until just a few weeks before the season started. But she looked strong at Skate America and Skate Canada, only to get her lowest score in over two seasons just three weeks ago at Warsaw Cup. Her programs this season have been the best vehicles ever for her.