It’s become arguably the most exciting matchups in men’s skating that we’ve seen since the days of Plushenko-Yagudin. Nathan Chen and Yuzuru Hanyu face off in a non-Championships regular season event for the first time since 2017 Rostelecom Cup. For Chen, he’s won 11 of his last 12 full international events - the one loss was at the 2018 Olympics, which Hanyu won. For Hanyu, 7 of his last 8 full international events - the one loss was at 2019 Worlds, which Chen won. They have only faced off with each other a handful of times, so those two records show just how dominant they have been.
And this season has been no different - in fact, the gap between these two and the rest of the men might be larger than it ever has been.
Grand Prix Final predictions
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GOLD Nathan Chen USA - The defending champion has his toughest task yet at the Grand Prix Final since 2017, when he finished second to Hanyu on the heels of a poor short program. With the possibility of a Hanyu showdown in mind, Chen has been bringing out more difficult layouts earlier in the season than he has in recent years. And while I don’t see him bringing out his full technical arsenal this week, I do see him upgrading his content from earlier in the season, which would help give him that base value advantage. Skating as cleanly as possible, with strong execution in his elements, will be the key to his three-peat.
SILVER Yuzuru Hanyu JPN - The quad lutz might be the make-or-break for Hanyu this week. I say that not because a mistake on the lutz would necessarily be the issue for him, but more because the mental energy that he might be putting into that element makes it just that much trickier for him. Given clean programs, Hanyu still has the advantage over Chen, but the potential return of that quad lutz, in addition to the general risk of the quad loop, makes it that much more difficult for him to be fully consistent. Everything he’s doing is directionally toward regaining his World title later this season, and upping his difficulty earlier than March is a strategic move for him. It may pay off this week, but it’s more about paying off at the end of this season.
BRONZE Dmitri Aliev RUS - Aliev’s resurgent season continues with his first appearance at the Grand Prix Final. He has yet to not podium this season, and he is the most complete skater of those not named Chen or Hanyu. What’s important for Aliev here is that quad lutz (it all comes back to the lutz for everyone, doesn’t it?), because he has rushed the takeoff in competition a few times this season and tripled it. At Rostelecom Cup, that tripling kept him from winning his first Grand Prix title. Getting it right this week will go a long way toward that podium.
4. Alexander Samarin RUS - Silver in France and gold in Russia, Samarin has been impressing this season with the improved consistency of his big jumps this season. We’ve not always known him to be a wholly consistent skater, so for him to get onto the podium, it will be necessary for him to continue that streak of improved consistency. His jumps are huge, but though his short program shows greater commitment to music, his free skate is where that falls apart.
5. Kevin Aymoz FRA - Does he come in with confidence or does he come in with nerves? The Grand Prix has been an emotional ride for Aymoz, and like Aliev, he’s coming in with medals from all of the competitions he’s competed in so far. But in his attempt to qualify for the Final a few weeks ago at NHK, the nerves really showed, and he was very shaky in his free skate. He was able to stay on the podium and get that Final berth there, but for him to have a chance at the podium here, he will need to skate with the confidence that we saw at Autumn Classic. The short program will tell a lot.
6. Boyang Jin CHN - It was a rollercoaster for Jin to make this Grand Prix Final - it took until the very last few skaters in the very last Grand Prix event for him to get that last spot. That said, what we saw from Jin at Cup of China was much more in line with what we had expected from him in years pass.