For the past few years, the story in the men’s event has been the growing (and friendly) rivalry between Nathan Chen and Yuzuru Hanyu. Hanyu, the two-time Olympic champion and two-time World champion, and Chen, the two-time and defending World champion this week, have pushed each other in their own journeys to and at the top. Men’s figure skating as a whole has benefited greatly from this rivalry, and we are about to witness another edition of Chen v Hanyu, 11 months before the ultimate showdown next year in Beijing.
World championships predictions
Official hashtags: #WorldFigure #Stockholm2021
Jumps-only base value (taken from US Nationals and Japan Nationals)
Short program
Nathan Chen: 36.22
4Lz 3A 4F3TxYuzuru Hanyu: 32.20
4S 4T3T 3Ax
Free skate
Nathan Chen: 83.00
4Lz 4F3T 3Lz 4S 4T1Eu3Fx 4T3Tx 3AxYuzuru Hanyu: 74.00
4Lo 4S 3A2T 3Lo 4T3Tx 4T1Eu3Sx 3Ax
GOLD Nathan Chen USA - I went back and forth on this one (as usual), and frankly, this is a bit of a stab in the dark given the lack of recent data points for the Chen vs. Hanyu pick. But having Chen here is a function of two things - 1) of the two, Chen has had the more consistent set of competition experience this season after having been at Skate America and US Nationals, and 2) Chen’s base value is expected to be higher than Hanyu’s, and so there’s a bit more buffer there. Based on what we’ve seen this season so far, the couple of things that have made people hold their breath over the last few years - the axel, the sal, spin levels - Chen has made some big strides on. And his overall consistency has just been remarkable considering the difficulty that he infuses into every program. But then of course …
SILVER Yuzuru Hanyu JPN - … consistency for Hanyu has always been a bit up and down, but what we saw from him at Japan Nationals in December was greater than anything I expected from Hanyu given that it was his first competition of the season and that he has not been training in Toronto with the rest of his team. Hanyu has had a history of bringing it later in the season (with some exceptions), and the fact that he was near perfect at Japan National was incredibly impressive - and certainly made his programs all the more spectacular. The other thing he’s got going for him is that he’s healthy - as far as we know - which is a welcomed relief for Hanyu observers who have seen him come back from injury twice over the past few years. He will need to bring that consistency and his seamless execution. It’s looking to be another incredible showdown.
BRONZE Shoma Uno JPN - A season and a half ago, Uno went from being solidly among the top three in the world to many wondering if he would even make the World team. Under the guidance of Stephane Lambiel, he has righted the ship and look to be more at ease with his skating than he’s been since the Olympic season. He made a few mistakes at Japan Nationals in December, but he seems to be back in that position of World podium favorite.
4. Yuma Kagiyama JPN - I jumped on the bandwagon that is Yuma Kagiyama a couple seasons ago and I regret it not one bit. It’s been too bad that we haven’t had a chance to watch him make a full season out of his first full year in seniors, because this is the time, especially pre-Olympics, where the up-and-coming names gain momentum. Worlds next week will be his second senior international event, after taking bronze just over a year ago at Four Continents. His skating is magnificent, and such a beautiful blend of power, solid edging, and ease of jumps. He will need to not succumb to the mental lapses that we have seen a couple times over the last year - when he does, he pops big jumps and loses big points.
5. Mikhail Kolyada FSR - The three-time Russian champion was out all last season after having surgery to treat his recurring sinusitis, and afterta switch of coaches, he seems to be back and more consistent than he’s ever been. Consistency has been a huge hurdle for him for his entire career, and the fact that he’s been putting down solid performances all season and gotten that mileage through the Russian domestic events has probably done wonders for him. He took bronze at Worlds three years ago, and will be back in the podium conversation again in Stockholm.
6. Vincent Zhou USA - It’s crazy to think that Zhou is the reigning World bronze medalist (from two years ago), and since that competition, he’s started college and almost left figure skating altogether. The biggest thing for him this week is likely to skate within his consistency, rather than throw the kitchen sink out there in Stockholm. We’ve seen in the past that it is when he’s clean and not doubting himself that he really brings out the nuances of his programs. But when he makes a big mistake early, the tendency to spiral downward goes up dramatically.
TwoSpot Watch: Each discipline will have its own mini-drama about Olympic spot qualification, and the ones of most interest are the solo entries who are trying to finish in the top 10 to get an extra spot for their country for that discipline. For the men, the guys who have a real shot for that second spot are Keegan Messing (CAN), Michal Brezina (CZE), Kevin Aymoz (FRA), Morisi Kvitelashvili (GEO), Alexei Bychenko (ISR), Deniss Vasiljevs (LAT), and Junhwan Cha (KOR).
7. Kevin Aymoz FRA - The last time Aymoz was in a major international competition, he had perhaps the most deflating skate of his life - finishing 26th in the short program and not qualifying to the free skate at 2020 Europeans, a competition he was favored to win. And perhaps having a year to let it sweep away with the memories is a good thing. Like many, he has also seen his training normalcy completely derailed by COVID, having been in France for most of the season. And he’s not just skating for himself here; he’s also skating to get that second spot back for the French men.
8. Jason Brown USA - I am so looking forward to seeing Brown’s utterly jaw-dropping short program again. His debut of it at US Nationals in January was just incredible, and it got the praise from all corners of the figure skating universe that it deserved. And though he’s only had that one competition this season, he’s benefited from being in Toronto and having that consistent training time with his coaches. The question for Brown and whether he can find himself in that top 5 or 6 will continue to be that quad in the free skate. How does he set himself up for the Olympic season?
9. Boyang Jin CHN - Post-PyeongChang has been a rollercoaster ride for Jin, who has twice stood on the World podium before. In a lot of ways, that 19th place finish at Worlds in 2018 was the start of him trying to figure out his confidence and consistency again, and he seemed to have regained a good bit of it over the past couple of years. But it also seemed to have been regained at the expense of some of the foundational skating and musicality strides that he had been making before then.
10. Junhwan Cha KOR - This was a tricky one. If this were right after the Korean Championships at the end of February, I would’ve said “YES TOP TEN.” But in the weeks since looking really strong at Korean Nationals, he also had a really subpar showing at a rankings competition in Korea, where he surprisingly lost to Sihyeong Lee. At his best, he’s no doubt in the top ten and getting that second spot for South Korea, but let’s hope he’s put that second competition behind him.
11. Keegan Messing CAN - This was also a tricky one. After all, we have literally zero data points for Messing since his bronze at Skate America - the only one since is that he made it to Worlds, and you would imagine it was because he impressed the selection committee in Canada in a virtual skate-off. He could really finish anywhere from like 5th to 20th in Stockholm and I could mentally justify why that was the case. So I guess we will see. Top 10 is definitely the main goal for Messing to get that second spot back for the Canadian men.
12. Han Yan CHN - Yan is another skater who we thought was maybe done for a couple of seasons ago, but has since made a phenomenal comeback to world-level skating. We always love that triple axel, and it’ll be great to see it again in Stockholm.
13. Evgeni Semenenko FSR - The Russian junior champ has been all over the place in competition this season - from winning Russian Juniors to sixth at Rostelecom Cup to 11th at the Russian Championships. It was thanks to a late surge and winning at the final Russian Cup competition in late February that he made it to Stockholm.
14. Deniss Vasiljevs LAT - In winning the only competition that he entered this season at Nebelhorn Trophy, Vasiljevs also landed a quad salchow for the first time. Having that extra technical arsenal certainly helps his chances, but he has a history of inconsistency in his jumps.
15. Daniel Grassl ITA - We’ve seen some good stuff from Grassl the past couple of seasons, and he’s shown that he can throw quads with the best of them. And even though their execution isn’t as clean and pure as others, they still give him big base value points.