Four years ago, we were marveling at the depth of pair skating at the World Championships, to the point where there were pairs who were plenty worthy of qualifying for the top 16 in the free skate who were left out. A host of countries had one or two strong pair teams, and before you knew it, you had around 20 pairs who could all be in the top 10 to top 12 on a good day. This time around, the depth may not be quite as much but there is still going to be lots of great skating to be had - and it seems to be a battle between China and Russia for the top spots, and then between Canada and the US for most of the top 10.
World Championships predictions
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GOLD Evgenia Tarasova/Vladimir Morozov FSR - Your surprise face is my surprise face when I decided to type this. There’s something about the way they skated at Russian Nationals, and the confidence and the suredness of their skating, that make me think that this is their year for World gold. Two silvers and a bronze - a gold next week will complete their collection of World medals.
SILVER Aleksandra Boikova/Dmitrii Kozlovskii FSR - A year ago this time, I was about to write them in as my prediction for the 2021 World champions, and then COVID shut everything down. This time around, they are still favored and in the mix, but Tarasova/Morozov are in a different state of mind and body than they were last year. They will need to be flawless to win here, and it’s been their throw flip that has given them trouble this season.
BRONZE Wenjing Sui/Cong Han CHN - Zero data points. The only thing we know about Sui/Han is that they are healthy and skating. We’ve certainly seen them not skate for a whole season and then just absolutely kill it in their first competition. The additional piece that helps them is that they are coming into Worlds with two programs that they have skated before, so there won’t be a breaking-in-program process that they will need to go through in Stockholm. For me, it’s always going to be their side-by-side sals that make me hesitate - when they don’t have competition reps for that element, the chances of them hitting it goes down. That might make the difference.
4. Cheng Peng/Yang Jin CHN - Their win at Cup of China was impressive, not the least of which was that they looked more prepared that early in the season than we’ve seen them in the past. Peng has been susceptible to minor injuries here and there over the past few seasons, and not having the number of competitions this year may have been very beneficial for them in staying healthy.
5. Anastasia Mishina/Aleksandr Galliamov FSR - The rising stars from Russia this season, Mishina/Galliamov took that third spot away from teammates Daria Pavliuchenko/Denis Khodykin after winning that last stage of Russian Cup in February. And they have absolutely been impressive this season, and are podium contenders in their first Worlds.
TwoSpot and ThreeSpot Watch: For pairs, this is going to be an interesting one. The solo pairs who have realistic shots at getting a top 10 finish for a second spot for the Olympics are Ziegler/Kiefer (AUT), Hocke/Kunkel (GER)*, and Miura/Kihara (JPN). Italy and France could be at risk of losing their second spot.
For countries with two pairs, the US and Canada have realistic but very difficult routes to a third spot.
*Germany had two spots but Hase/Seegert withdrew, making it essentially a solo spot for Germany
6. Alexa Knierim/Brandon Frazier USA - Speaking of first Worlds - it’s not the first appearance for either Knierim or Frazier, but it is the first appearance for them as a pair team. We have known their strengths as pair skaters for years, and this pairing seems to bring out the best (and the consistent) in both of them. Their issues have never been about their foundational skating, rather it’s always been about the consistency of their programs, and with consistency being more strength and less problem now, they find themselves with a legitimate chance at top five in their first Worlds together.
7. Kirsten Moore-Towers/Michael Marinaro CAN - The Canadian champs find themselves going into the Olympics next season as, no doubt, the top Canadian pair. This is a far cry from four years ago, when they were just hoping to find their way onto the three-spot Canadian pairs team for the Olympics, which they eventually did in 2018. They also have the goods to get into the top five, but they will need to be clean.
8. Ashley Cain-Gribble/Timothy LeDuc USA - The late replacements for Jessica Calalang/Brian Johnson, Cain-Gribble/LeDuc are no strangers to the World Championships, having finished ninth two years ago to get that second pairs spot back for the US. This year, they have the opportunity to help the US get a THIRD spot back for pairs, something that hasn’t happened since 2003 Worlds and 1994 Olympics.
9. Evelyn Walsh/Trennt Michaud CAN - We haven’t seen Walsh/Michaud at all this season, but they were looking like they were on their way to a top 10 finish last year before COVID wiped out the World Championships. A clean short will be key for them.
10. Annika Hocke/Robert Kunkel GER - Hocke/Kunkel have unseated Hase/Seegert this season in the German pairs world and will be competing by themselves in Stockholm after . They have been on an upward trajectory in consistency and becoming a top pair under the tutelage of Aljona Savchenko, and they’ve got a real shot at finishing in the top ten to maintain that second pairs spot for Germany here.