Ladies’ figure skating has been an ever-changing discipline. And this time last year, we were anticipating the anointing of one of the newly-senior Russians - no lie, I was a day or two from publishing my previews and predictions for last year’s Worlds, and my pick was for Alena Kostornaia to win the whole thing. But alas, Kostornaia will not be at Worlds this year after a very trying season.
For this year’s Worlds, the emergence of the quad will be on centerstage. Two years after Elizabet Tursynbaeva landed the first quad at Worlds, there will be at least three women attempting at least one quad in Stockholm. And 32 years after Midori Ito landed the first triple axel at Worlds, at least three women will attempt the triple axel, with a few others training it.
World Championships predictions
Official hashtags: #WorldFigure #Stokcholm2021
Jumps-only base value
Short program
Trusova 3A: 24.41 3A 3F 3Lz3Tx
Kihira: 23.99 3A 3F3T 3Lzx
Tuktamysheva: 23.93 3A 3Lz3T 3Fx
Shcherbakova: 21.48 2A 3F 3Lz3Lox
Trusova 2A: 19.71 2A 3F 3Lz3Tx
Free skate
Trusova 4 quads*: 72.06 4S 4Lz 4T 2A 4T1Eu3Sx 3Lz3Lox 3F3Tx
Trusova 3 quads*: 69.48 4Lz3T 4Lz 4T 2A 3Lz3Lox 3F1Eu3Sx 3Lzx
Shcherbakova: 64.78 4Lz 4F 3F3T 2A 3Lz3Lox 3F1Eu3Sx 3Lzs
Trusova 2 quads*: 63.28 4Lz3T 4Lz 4T 2A 3Lz3Lox 3F1Eu3Sx 3Lzx
Kihira 2 3As: 60.59 4S 3A 3A1Eu3S 3Lo 2A3Tx 3F3Tx 3Lzx
Kihira 1 3A: 57.89 4S 3A 3F1Eu3s 3Lo 2A3Tx 3F3Tx 3Lzx
Tuktamysheva: 51.27 3A2T 3A 3Lz3T 3F 3S2Ax 3Lzx 3Lox
*Trusova’s 4-quad layout hypothetical based on a combo of programs; 3-quad layout hypothetical based on Russian Nationals layout with 4T; 2-quad layout from Russian Nationals
GOLD Rika Kihira JPN - It’s the short program triple axel - that’s what this prediction is all about. Kihira will need to bring everything or almost everything to the table here to match the technical prowess from Shcherbakova and Trusova. The quad sal that she hit at Japan Nationals may be what makes the difference here. Of the three top ladies here, Kihira has the most complete programs and the strongest basics (though it’s a possibility that the judges will disagree). But provided that she goes clean with the difficulty, I see her taking this title.
SILVER Anna Shcherbakova FSR - There are a couple of question marks with the Russian champ coming into this competition - 1) has she recovered from her pneumonia / fevers / possible-COVID late last year? 2) What kind of technical content is she going to pack into her free skate? Based on her layout at Russian Nationals, there’s a real possibility that she’s got a 4Lz-4F-4F3T opening in her free skate, which would skyrocket her base value. The key to her success this week will be for her to stay close after the short program and bring the firepower in the free.
BRONZE Alexandra Trusova FSR - If we get either a triple axel in the short or three or more quads from Trusova in the free skate, and she skates clean, she gets the win based on sheer base value alone. Trusova has been in various layouts this season because of injury, and we know she’s capable of doing a four-quad free skate. That is also to say that a program like that would be incredibly risky, with high probability for errors. She has shown a great deal of improvement in how she has skated the short program this season, though the free skate remains a program filled with jumps and less focus on the basics. A lot of where she ends up this week will be based on what her and her team’s appetite for risk will be.
4. Elizaveta Tuktamysheva FSR - It’s been six years since Tuktamysheva won Worlds; it’s also been six years since Tuktamysheva went to Worlds. And what a story she brings into Stockholm - after a post-2015 slump and a subsequent return to form, complete with improvement in the technical department, she’s back at Worlds at the age of 24 hanging with the best of them. She’s got a shot at the podium this week - and if her surprise win at Rostelecom Cup in the fall is any indication, these medals could be anyone’s to grab.
5. Kaori Sakamoto JPN - Sakamoto was a bit lost last season - after some inconsistency set in during the fall, she was also trying to play catch-up, trying quad toes later in that season in an attempt to play some catch-up. But this season has been about getting that consistency back, and that served her well on her way to getting back on the Japan podium and onto the World team. Getting out of her own head will be necessary for her to find her way to a chance at a podium finish.
6. Bradie Tennell USA - The scenarios range from potentially as high as fourth to somewhere lower in the top ten for Tennell, and so much of it depends on whether we see her hit like she did at US Nationals, and how the skaters above her who has the bigger base values actually deliver. Tennell was coy about the status of her triple axel in the pre-Worlds teleconferences, but I’m guessing it will be quite the risk for her to try a new jump in an event where she and Karen Chen are trying to earn back a third spot for the US women for the Olympics. Clean is key, and a clean Tennell is top 5-top 6 in the world.
TwoSpot and ThreeSpot watch: Of the solo ladies looking to finish in the top 10 here to get that second spot for their country, the ones with realistic chances look to be Ekaterina Ryabova (AZE), Loena Hendrickx (BEL), Viktoriia Safonova (BLR), Ekaterina Kurakova (POL), and Alexia Paganini (SUI).
For the current two-spot countries looking for a third spot, the US (Karen Chen / Bradie Tennell) and South Korea (Yelim Kim / Haein Lee) will have the best chances there, though it’ll be a tall order for both countries.
7. Yelim Kim KOR - Kim has established herself as the leading woman in Korean skating this season, not just because Young You hasn’t found the form that she had last season, but also because she’s really come into her own as a skater and an artist. This will be her first international event of the season, but she’s had a good bit of competition time lately domestically, so that should serve her well.
8. Satoko Miyahara JPN - At her best, Miyahara is absolutely in that top 5-top 6 group, and at her best, she’s the class of the field in artistry and basics. But after a somewhat tumultuous couple of years, she’s fought her way back onto the World team. How’s her consistency and penchant for underrotation now compared to last season? Japan Nationals was a good step forward, and a couple more months of training since may put her in a really good spot.
9. Loena Hendrickx BEL - Injuries took Hendrickx out of all of last season, and she made a triumphant return this season at Budapest Trophy. The issue for her is competition time, as she’s really not had too many under her belt since the Olympic season.
10. Karen Chen USA - Four years ago, Chen lead the US ladies to recapture that third spot for the Olympics. And this year, she wants to channel that energy to try to do it again, though the hill is a good bit more difficult to climb this time around (Chen was 4th in 2017, with Ashley Wagner taking 7th to earn that third spot). She needs two clean programs, and frankly, the skates of her life in order to get there. If she and Tennell are at or near their very best, they have a strong look at that third spot.
11. Viktoriia Safonova BLR - Safonova’s got the jumps and can crack the top ten in her first Worlds. She finished eighth at Rostelecom Cup in the fall.
12. Haein Lee KOR - The surprise second qualifier for South Korea here at Worlds, Lee impressed last season on the junior ranks. This will be her very first international senior event.
13. Ekaterina Kurakova POL - Having been stuck in Europe over the past year, Kurakova has had to completely change her coaching arrangement, going from training in Canada with Brian Orser to training in Italy with Lorenz Magri. There’s a lot to like about her skating, though for some reason, the judges don’t always agree.
14. Alexia Paganini SUI - Paganini has become a bit of a late-season skater over the past couple of years - her fourth-place finish at Europeans last year was a prime example of that. This will be her first event since Nebelhorn Trophy in the fall, where she finished second.
15. Madeline Schizas CAN - After not making the World team last season, Schizas will make her Worlds debut in her second international senior event ever. She won the Skate Canada Challenge, held virtually in January, which ended up serving as a pseudo-Nationals, on her way to Stockholm.